2026年第4期（总442期）目录

空间分析法在对外援助研究中的应用

黄振乾　 王宝莎

内容提要：对外援助是现代国家交往的主要渠道之一，也是考察特定国家外交政策、参与全球治理和国际发展合作的重要维度。近年来，空间分析法在对外援助研究领域迅速得到应用，出现了对外援助研究“空间转向”的趋势。相关研究通常围绕对外援助分配及其影响来展开，在较短时间内产出了成规模的实证研究成果，重塑了对外援助领域的研究范式，显著推动了学界对对外援助尤其是中国对外援助的科学认识。本文以中国对外援助的分配与影响为例，对空间分析法在对外援助研究的缘起、主要应用场景和分析方案进行综合评述，以期激发中国学者的研究灵感，提升对外援助研究的科学化水平。

关键词：空间分析法　对外援助　援助分配　援助影响

基金项目：国家社会科学基金青年项目“中国援助对非洲国家经济发展政策选择的影响研究”（编号：21CZZ040）

作者简介：黄振乾系中国农业大学人文与发展学院副教授，研究方向为国家治理、全球治理、非洲比较政治；王宝莎系中国农业大学人文与发展学院博士研究生，研究方向为国际发展、对外援助、全球治理。

美国出口管制法的域外管辖规则与中国因应——以半导体产业为例

阮淑慧

内容提要： 近年来，拥有高度全球化价值链生态的半导体产业成为中美技术竞争的关键领域。美国依托其出口管制法的微量允许规则、外国直接产品规则、对“美国人”特定活动的限制规则以及50%穿透性规则，以半导体产业的生产要素投入为管辖权连接点，构建起覆盖广泛的域外管辖体系。在WTO法律框架下，这些措施涉嫌违反最惠国待遇、普遍取消数量限制等条款，且难以通过援引安全例外条款获得正当性。从习惯国际法的属地管辖、保护管辖、国籍管辖与国际礼让原则来看，出口管制的域外管辖行为需要遵循相应的合理边界。中国是美国在半导体领域的重点出口管制对象，可通过WTO争端解决机制与外交途径，强化涉外经贸法治建设与规则运用能力，提升对关键物项与技术的管控水平，为国际层面的博弈增添筹码。

关键词：半导体　出口管制　域外管辖　安全例外　管辖权原则

基金项目：2024年度上海市哲学社会科学规划课题“国际经济法视域下经济安全措施的法律规制研究”（编号：2024EFX002）

作者简介：阮淑慧系上海市开放战略研究中心（上海WTO事务咨询中心）助理研究员，研究方向为国际贸易法、国际投资法。

中国法定数字货币的先发优势研究

贾鹏飞　 展可扬　 肖　宇

内容提要：中国在法定数字货币领域的前瞻性探索使其在国际数字货币竞争中处于先行者地位，但如何将其转化为先发优势是中国法定数字货币亟须关注的核心议题。基于先发优势理论，从技术、标准制定和用户基础三个维度对中国法定数字货币进行解构，回答“为什么中国法定数字货币更易形成先发优势”的问题。中国在中心化账本、分级钱包体系和匿名技术等方面的技术创新造就了中国法定数字货币的双层运营体系，使其兼具账户松耦合特征和可控匿名原则，进而形成技术层面的先发优势。通过法定数字货币的先发实践，中国将数字货币体系建设的技术标准和监管标准经验融入国际标准的制定，保证了中国法定数字货币在标准制定上的先发优势。同时，中国移动支付的高普及率、法定数字货币对用户需求的解决及其试点场景的拓展均能增强用户对中国法定数字货币的偏好，从而构筑中国法定数字货币在用户基础层面的先发优势。通过分析中国法定数字货币的先发优势，为其后续发展和应用提供理论支撑，提炼中国特色的法定数字货币发展经验，为全球数字货币治理提供中国样本。

关键词：法定数字货币　先发优势　数字人民币　标准制定

基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目“双层运营模式下央行数字货币对商业银行的影响研究”（编号：72573079）

作者简介：贾鹏飞系南京大学商学院副教授，研究方向为宏观经济学；展可扬系南京大学商学院硕士研究生，研究方向为数字经济；肖宇系西南财经大学金融研究院副教授，研究方向为货币银行学。

贸易政策不确定性与高科技企业关键核心技术创新——来自中美贸易摩擦的证据

胡云飞　 李依婕　 曹祎遐

内容提要：中美贸易摩擦显著增加了中国企业面临的政策不确定性，尤其对高科技企业创新产生重要影响。基于2016—2023年中国A股上市公司数据，考察中美贸易摩擦背景下贸易政策不确定性对高科技企业关键核心技术创新的影响。研究发现，贸易政策不确定性上升显著提高了高科技企业核心技术创新产出。机制分析表明，贸易政策不确定性通过抑制国外技术引进、推动国内研发投入以增强核心技术创新能力，贸易开放度、政府补贴强度和市场化程度放大了这一正向作用，东部地区企业和高AI技术嵌入企业在不确定性冲击下表现出更强的创新响应。研究为理解外部不确定性对高科技企业创新的影响提供经验证据，并为优化创新支持政策和提升企业创新韧性提供参考。

关键词：贸易政策不确定性　关键核心技术创新　技术引进　创新投入　AI技术

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“以全球城市为核心的巨型城市群引领双循环发展研究”（编号：22&ZD067）

作者简介：胡云飞系上海师范大学天华学院商学院讲师，研究方向为数字经济；李依婕系上海社会科学院世界中国学研究所博士研究生，研究方向为世界中国学；曹祎遐系上海社会科学院应用经济研究所研究员，研究方向为创业与创新管理。

标准国际化、服务业开放与企业全球价值链韧性

王晶华　 曾世宏　 顾金科

内容提要：基于稳步扩大制度型开放的战略部署和全球价值链治理风险不断增加的现实背景，研究标准国际化如何影响企业全球价值链韧性，并探讨服务业开放在这一过程中的作用具有现实意义。标准国际化从稳外贸和促转型两个维度显著提升了企业全球价值链韧性，在有效投资水平、外贸转型升级、全球价值链分工环节、标准融合程度以及标准类型等方面呈现异质性。稳外贸主要通过提升出口市场多元化、出口产品多元化、降低出口产品集中度来提升企业全球价值链安全性；促转型主要通过内外贸一体化与出口贸易转型升级提升企业全球价值链稳定性。服务业开放可以正向调节标准国际化对企业全球价值链韧性的提升效果，对出口市场多元化、出口产品多元化、内外贸一体化以及出口贸易转型升级水平较低的企业，效果尤其明显。通过识别标准国际化对企业全球价值链韧性的影响效应，能够为稳步扩大制度型开放、统筹价值链安全与可持续发展提供政策启示。

关键词：标准国际化　价值链韧性　制度型开放　服务业开放　内外贸一体化

基金项目：研究阐释党的二十届三中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大专项“培育全国一体化技术和数据市场的理论框架与实践路径研究”（编号：24ZDA016）、智库专家服务湖南省“十五五”规划重大专题研究“湖南扩大高水平对外开放重点问题研究”（编号：25ZDAK08）

作者简介：王晶华系湖南科技大学商学院博士研究生，研究方向为数字经济、服务经济和产业经济；曾世宏系湖南科技大学商学院教授、湖南省新型工业化研究基地研究员，研究方向为服务经济和数字治理；顾金科系湖北大学商学院博士研究生，研究方向为全球价值链与创新。

中欧文化贸易的经验、困境及对策

任　力　 张嘉杰

内容提要：加强中欧文化贸易合作是推进高水平对外开放、加快建设贸易强国的重要内容。过去50年中，在中欧双边合作机制的驱动下，中国强化制度保障，持续推动市场改革与文化交流，使中欧文化贸易合作取得了突出成效，构建了稳定的制度性合作框架，贸易规模持续扩大，合作领域进一步拓宽，特色产品不断涌现，数字化水平稳步提升。当前，中欧文化贸易正从单纯的规模增长进入结构调整期。这一转型面临三大挑战：一是制度性风险凸显，宏观经济不稳定与双边规则差异导致贸易不确定性持续上升；二是结构性脆弱程度加剧，市场高度集中使得贸易体系在面对外部冲击时缺乏足够韧性；三是壁垒形态由“硬”转“软”，数字化转型将贸易约束从传统的关税壁垒延伸至数据主权、平台监管与算法治理等新兴领域。基于此，中欧双方应强化规则沟通并稳定预期、优化市场与产品结构、构建数字制度适配框架与规则参与机制、加强地方政府和民间团体合作等政策路径，推动中欧文化贸易实现高质量发展。

关键词：文化贸易　高水平对外开放　制度性风险　数字贸易壁垒　高质量发展

基金项目：四川省哲学社会科学基金“区域国别与国际传播研究”重大专项项目“四川与拉美文化产业合作模式及路径研究”（编号：SCJJ24ZD8）

作者简介：任力系厦门大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，研究方向为政治经济学、公司金融学、文化经济学；张嘉杰系厦门大学经济学院硕士研究生，研究方向为公司金融学、文化经济学。

特朗普2.0的美国粮食安全战略及其影响

徐佳利

内容提要：大国竞争加剧背景下，粮食安全成为国际博弈的重点领域。在特朗普第二任期，美国政府首次将农业与粮食安全纳入国家安全框架，密集出台一系列政策，旨在强化对世界粮食体系的主导权。对内，其依托“大而美”法，大幅提升本国农业补贴，巩固粮食产业国际竞争力，以满足国内政治经济利益需求。对外，加大外资审查力度，严控外资对美国农业的准入，发动关税与贸易战，拓展粮食国际市场份额，粮食对外援助全面转向“美国优先”。美国是全球主要的粮食出口国，其政策变动对全球粮食市场及治理体系具有深远影响。美国粮食新政正加剧全球粮食市场的波动性，削弱联合国粮农三机构的运作效力，放大国际粮食贸易摩擦与供应链风险，破坏大国间粮食合作关系，引发国际合作集体困境，阻碍全球粮食安全治理进程。当前，中美粮食安全合作空间依然狭窄，中国应持续夯实自身粮食安全根基，加大对全球粮食安全治理的参与力度。

关键词：特朗普2.0　粮食外交　全球粮食安全　大国关系　全球治理

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“社会力量参与中国海外安全供给的协同机制研究”（编号：25BGJ024）

作者简介：徐佳利系农业农村部对外经济合作中心助理研究员，研究方向为国际发展与全球粮食安全。

主权债务重组下公私债权人集体行动困境研究

杨　钊

内容提要：公私债权人之间难以形成合力是主权债务重组集体行动困境的典型表现。这一困境既源于私人债权人与官方债权人参与主权债务治理的结构性问题，也源于私人债权人的自愿性与可选择性特征。有效引导私人债权人的行为成为缓解集体行动困境的关键环节。未来改革应以推动公私债权人之间合作共赢的治理理念为基础，从保护与监管两个方向推进治理规则的系统性革新：构建非正式协商机制、改革待遇可比性标准，保障私人债权人的合法权益并促进不同债权人之间的公平对待；规范主权债券合同、强化私人债权人母国监管并完善关键司法辖区立法，提升对私人债权人的引导与约束能力。

关键词：私人债权人　官方债权人　主权债务　非正式协商机制　待遇可比性原则

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大专项（编号：21VGQ001）

作者简介：杨钊系中国人民大学法学院国际法学博士研究生，研究方向为国际经济法、主权债务治理。

Spatial Analysis in Foreign Aid Research

Huang Zhenqian　Wang Baosha

Abstract: Foreign aid is one of the principal channels of interaction among modern states and an important lens to examine a given country’s foreign policy, its engagement in global governance and international development cooperation. In recent years, spatial analysis has been rapidly adopted in foreign aid research, giving rise to a “spatial turn” in this field. This emerging literature has largely focused on the allocation and impacts of foreign aid, generating a substantial body of empirical findings within a relatively short period of time. In doing so, it has reshaped the research paradigm in the field of foreign aid and significantly advanced scholarly understanding of foreign aid, especially Chinese foreign aid. Using the allocation and impacts of Chinese foreign aid as an illustrative case, this article comprehensively reviews the origins, major application scenarios and analytical strategies of spatial analysis in foreign aid research, aiming to inspire Chinese scholars and enhance the scientific rigor of foreign aid research.

Keywords: spatial analysis, foreign aid, aid allocation, aid impacts

Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Rules of US Export Control Law and China’s Response:

Case Study of Semiconductor Industry

Ruan Shuhui

Abstract: In recent years, the semiconductor industry, characterized by a highly globalized value chain ecosystem, has become a critical arena of technological competition between China and the US. Leveraging the de minimis rule, the Foreign-Direct Product Rules, restrictions on specific activities of “U.S. persons” and the 50 Percent Rule under its export control law, the US has established an extensive extraterritorial jurisdiction system by using production factor inputs within the semiconductor industry as jurisdictional connecting factors. Under the WTO legal framework, these measures are suspected of violating provisions such as Most-Favored-Nation Treatment and General Elimination of Quantitative Restrictions, and they are unlikely to be justified by invoking the security exception clause. From the perspectives of customary international law, including the principles of territorial jurisdiction, protective jurisdiction, nationality jurisdiction, and international comity, the extraterritorial application of export controls should be subject to reasonable limits. As a primary target of US export controls in the semiconductor field, China may respond through WTO dispute settlement mechanisms and diplomatic channels, strengthen its foreign-related economic and trade legal system and its capacity to apply international rules, and enhance its control over critical items and technologies, thereby increasing its leverage in international strategic competition.

Keywords: semiconductor, export controls, extraterritorial jurisdiction, security exception, jurisdictional principles

Study on First-Mover Advantages of China’s Central Bank Digital Currency

Jia Pengfei　Zhan Keyang　Xiao Yu

Abstract: China’s forward-looking exploration of central bank digital currency (CBDC) has positioned the country as a pioneer in global digital currency competition. However, how to transform this pioneering status into first-mover advantages has become a core issue for China’s CBDC development. Based on the first-mover advantage theory, this paper examines China’s CBDC from the perspectives of technology, standard-setting, and user base and explains why China’s CBDC is well-positioned to develop first-mover advantages. China’s technological innovations in centralized ledgers, hierarchical wallet systems, and anonymity technologies have shaped the two-tier operational system of China’s CBDC, which features loose coupling of accounts and controllable anonymity, thus establishing a first-mover advantage in the technological dimension. Through the early practice of CBDC, China has integrated its experience in technological and regulatory standards for digital currency system development into international standard-setting processes, thereby securing a first-mover advantage in standard-setting. Furthermore, the high penetration rate of mobile payments in China, the ability of the CBDC to meet users’ demands, and the expansion of its pilot applications have all strengthened users’ preferences for China’s CBDC, thus establishing a first-mover advantage in the user base dimension. This paper analyzes the first-mover advantages of China’s CBDC, providing theoretical support for its future development and application. In addition, it summarizes China’s experience in developing a CBDC with Chinese characteristics, offering a Chinese model for global digital currency governance.

Keywords: central bank digital currency, first-mover advantage, digital renminbi, standard-setting

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Innovation of Key and Core Technologies

in High-Tech Firms: Evidence From China-US Trade Friction

Hu Yunfei　Li Yijie　Cao Yixia

Abstract: The China-US trade friction has significantly increased policy uncertainty facing Chinese firms, particularly impacting innovation in high-tech firms. Drawing on data from Chinese A-share listed firms between 2016 and 2023, this paper examines how trade policy uncertainty under the China-US trade friction affects innovation in core technologies in key fields in high-tech firms. The findings reveal that heightened trade policy uncertainty significantly increases the output of core technology innovation in high-tech firms. Mechanism analysis indicates that trade policy uncertainty enhances core technological innovation capabilities by suppressing foreign technology imports and boosting domestic research and development investment. Trade openness, government subsidy intensity, and the level of marketization amplify this positive effect. Firms located in the eastern regions and those with a high level of artificial intelligence technology embedding exhibit stronger innovation responses to uncertainty shocks. This study provides empirical evidence for understanding the impact of external uncertainty on innovation in high-tech firms and offers insights for optimizing innovation support policies and enhancing corporate innovation resilience.

Keywords: trade policy uncertainty, innovation of key and core technologies, technology imports, innovation investment, artificial intelligence technology

Standards Internationalization, Opening-up of Services Sector

and Enterprises’ Global Value Chain Resilience

Wang Jinghua　Zeng Shihong　Gu Jinke

Abstract: Based on the strategic plan of steadily expanding institutional opening-up and the realistic backdrop of increasing risks in global value chain (GVC) governance, examining how standards internationalization affects enterprises’ GVC resilience and exploring the role of the opening-up of the services sector in this process is of practical importance. Standards internationalization significantly enhances enterprises’ GVC resilience from the dual dimensions of stabilizing foreign trade and promoting industrial transformation. The enhancing effect is heterogeneous in terms of the effective investment level, foreign trade transformation and upgrading, GVC positioning, the degree of standard integration, and standard types. Stabilizing foreign trade improves enterprises’ GVC security primarily by enhancing the diversification of export markets and products and reducing the concentration of export products. Promoting industrial transformation enhances enterprises’ GVC stability mainly through domestic and foreign trade integration, as well as export trade transformation and upgrading. The opening-up of the services sector can positively moderate the enhancing effect of standards internationalization on enterprises’ GVC resilience, especially for enterprises with low levels of export market and product diversification, integration of domestic and foreign trade, and transformation and upgrading of export trade. By identifying the impact of standards internationalization on enterprises’ GVC resilience, this study provides policy implications for steadily expanding institutional opening-up and coordinating GVC security and sustainable development.

Keywords: standards internationalization, value chain resilience, institutional opening-up, opening-up of services sector, domestic and foreign trade integration

Experience, Dilemmas and Countermeasures of China-EU Cultural Trade

Ren Li　Zhang Jiajie

Abstract: Strengthening China-EU cultural trade cooperation is an important component of advancing high-level opening-up and accelerating the building of China into a powerful trading nation. Over the past five decades, driven by China-EU bilateral cooperation mechanisms, China has strengthened institutional safeguards and continuously promoted market-oriented reforms and cultural exchanges. As a result, China-EU cultural trade cooperation has achieved remarkable progress, including the establishment of a stable institutional framework for cooperation, sustained expansion of trade scale, broader areas of cooperation, the emergence of distinctive products, and steady improvements in digitalization. Currently, China-EU cultural trade is transitioning from a phase of simple scale expansion to one of structural adjustment. This transition faces three major challenges. First, institutional risks have become prominent, as macroeconomic instability and differences in bilateral regulations have led to persistently rising trade uncertainty. Second, structural vulnerabilities have intensified, as a high degree of market concentration renders the trade system insufficiently resilient to external shocks. Third, trade barriers are evolving from hard to soft forms. Digital transformation has extended trade constraints beyond traditional tariff barriers to emerging domains such as data sovereignty, platform regulation, and algorithmic governance. In response, China and the EU should pursue policy pathways including strengthening regulatory communication and stabilizing expectations, optimizing market and product structures, establishing frameworks for digital institutional alignment and mechanisms for participating in global rule formulation, and enhancing cooperation among local governments and civil society organizations, so as to promote the high-quality development of China-EU cultural trade.

Keywords: cultural trade, high-level opening-up, institutional risks, digital trade barriers, high-quality development

US Food Security Strategy Under Trump 2.0 and Its Implications

Xu Jiali

Abstract: Against the backdrop of intensifying major-country competition, food security has become a key arena of international strategic rivalry. During Donald Trump’s second term, the US government incorporated agriculture and food security into its national security agenda for the first time and rolled out a flurry of policies aimed at consolidating US dominance over the global food system. Domestically, leveraging the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the administration has substantially increased agricultural subsidies to reinforce the international competitiveness of US food industries and to satisfy domestic political and economic interests. Internationally, it has tightened scrutiny of foreign investment, strictly restricted foreign access to US agriculture, launched tariff and trade wars, expanded its global market share in food products, and reoriented foreign food assistance toward an “America First” approach. The US remains the world’s major food exporter, and its policy changes exert a profound influence on global food markets and governance systems. The new US food policies are heightening volatility in global food markets, undermining the operational effectiveness of the three United Nations Rome-based Agencies, amplifying international food trade frictions and supply chain risks, disrupting food cooperation among major countries, and generating collective-action dilemmas in international cooperation on food security, thereby impeding progress in global food security governance. At present, the scope of China-US cooperation on food security remains limited. China should continue to strengthen the foundations of its own food security while expanding its participation in global food security governance.

Keywords: Trump 2.0, food diplomacy, global food security, major-country relations, global governance

Collective Action Dilemma Between Official and Private Creditors

in Sovereign Debt Restructuring

Yang Zhao

Abstract: The difficulty in creating a collective force between official and private creditors is a typical manifestation of the collective action dilemma in sovereign debt restructuring. The dilemma arises not only from structural constraints in their participation in sovereign debt governance, but also from the voluntary and discretionary nature of private creditors. Effectively guiding the behavior of private creditors has become a key step in alleviating the collective action dilemma. Future reforms should be grounded in a governance philosophy that promotes cooperation and mutual benefit between official and private creditors, while advancing systematic innovation in governance rules along two paths − protection and regulation. This entails establishing informal negotiation mechanisms and reforming a comparability of treatment standard to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of private creditors and promote equitable treatment among different creditors, as well as standardizing sovereign bond contracts, strengthening the regulation by the home countries of private creditors, and improving legislation in key jurisdictions to enhance the capacity to guide and regulate the behavior of private creditors.

Keywords: private creditors, official creditors, sovereign debt, informal negotiation mechanism, principle of comparability of treatment