2026年第2期（总440期）目录
人工智能对“贸易面向型”国际数据规则的影响及趋势
周念利 李金哲
内容提要：在数字经济迈向人工智能驱动的新阶段，“贸易面向型”国际数据规则正遭遇技术冲击与制度适应性危机。隐私保护规则方面，人工智能对数据的跨场景复用与“模型记忆”特征，不仅突破目的限定与收集限制原则的合规边界，也使以删除权为核心的个人参与机制陷入技术困境。数据跨境流动与本地化规则方面，中间数据的属性模糊化引发监管升级，安全例外条款亦被防御性泛化。数据开放与创新规则方面，人工智能强大的去匿名化能力令脱敏机制失效，而算力资源获取的不对称性正将形式上的规则开放异化为跨国巨头的实质性垄断，加剧全球数字贸易的治理赤字与发展鸿沟。展望未来，“贸易面向型”国际数据规则将立足于技术应用的实质性场景，构建兼具技术包容度与治理颗粒度的规则。作为数字贸易大国，中国应秉持技术务实主义，在统筹发展和安全的前提下，主动参与并引领智能化时代国际数据治理框架的重塑。
关键词：人工智能 数据治理 “贸易面向型”数据规则 数据跨境流动
基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“国际经贸规则重构背景下服务业高水平开放的制度创新与实践路径研究”（编号：25&ZD102）、北京市社会科学基金重点项目“北京服务业扩大开放研究”（编号：25BJ02009）
作者简介：周念利系对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院研究员，研究方向为数字贸易、服务贸易；李金哲系对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院博士研究生，研究方向为数字贸易。
人工智能对全球供应链的冲击及中国对策研究
杨攻研 马敬臣
内容提要：人工智能的迅猛发展深刻影响全球供应链变迁。人工智能通过改变以劳动力成本为基础的分工逻辑，重构国家和企业的创新模式，推动供应链治理体系变革，进而引发全球供应链体系的重塑。在人工智能的冲击下，全球供应链网络未来将呈现三个新趋势：一是供应链区域化、近岸化趋势不断增强，北美、欧洲、亚洲三大经济圈内部供应链协同进一步深化；二是人工智能将加剧供应链主体间的结构性权力失衡，主要参与国在技术、标准领域的战略竞争全面加剧；三是包容、普惠的全球供应链治理体系的缺失导致全球治理赤字进一步扩大，国家间的不平等程度持续恶化。在此变局之下，中国应强化亚太区域协同，夯实国内算力与能源基础，引领全球供应链治理体系变革，积极应对潜在的风险与挑战。
关键词：人工智能 供应链重塑 国家权力 全球治理体系变革
基金项目：国家社会科学基金重点项目“地缘政治风险对我国企业供应链安全的影响及对策研究”（编号：24AGJ008）
作者简介：杨攻研系辽宁大学国际经济政治学院副院长、教授，研究方向为企业经济、人工智能与国际安全；马敬臣系辽宁大学国际经济政治学院博士研究生，研究方向为人工智能与世界经济。
自我强化的焦虑：美国对华人工智能竞争的机制及其悖论
戚 凯
内容提要：人工智能作为数字时代的核心驱动力，正在重塑全球科技乃至战略竞争格局。面对中国在人工智能领域的快速崛起，美国逐步形成一套以“焦虑驱动”为内核的制度化竞争体系。这一体系的形成源于美国对华技术优势的认知转变，从早期对中国科研突破的局部警觉，逐步演变为对技术权力转移的系统性恐慌，最终固化为跨党派的政治共识。在此过程中，美国通过国内政策统筹、供应链规锁、联盟网络构建及价值污名化等手段，将焦虑转化为对华系统性遏制政策。然而，这一体系在实践中暴露出创新生态封闭与开放需求、联盟利益分化与战略协同、绝对安全追求与成本透支之间的深层悖论，导致其竞争效能不断弱化。中国的战略应对要立足自身发展需求，坚持开放创新生态建设，精准分化外部联盟体系，推动人工智能技术与社会经济的深度融合，为全球技术治理提供包容性方案。
关键词：人工智能 中美战略博弈 制裁与反制裁 供应链安全 联盟政治
基金项目：国家社会科学基金研究阐释党的二十届三中全会精神重大专项项目“反制裁、反干涉、反‘长臂管辖’的理论体系与制度保障研究”（编号：24ZDA102）、山东省人才工程专项项目（编号：tsqn202507077）
作者简介：戚凯系山东大学东北亚学院教授，研究方向为大国数字竞争、“长臂管辖”与经济制裁、跨国投资风险与中国海外安全。
地缘政治冲击、全球生产网络与主权债务风险
李 政 石 晴 刘 琦
内容提要：在地缘政治冲击加剧与全球生产网络深度耦合的背景下，主权债务风险呈现跨国联动与系统性积聚的特征，识别地缘政治冲击的传导机制与主导路径对完善主权债务风险预警体系及维护国际金融稳定具有重要现实意义。基于全球投入产出关联网络构建国家层面空间权重矩阵，运用异质性空间自回归模型，结合国别地缘政治风险指数与五年期主权信用违约互换利差等指标，从前向和后向关联两个维度实证检验地缘政治冲击对主权债务风险的直接影响及其通过生产网络产生的跨国溢出效应。结果表明，地缘政治冲击不仅显著推高本国主权债务风险，还会沿全球生产网络在关联经济体之间传播并放大，其中超过30%的总效应归因于投入产出关联所引致的网络传导；相较于后向关联所体现的上游供给冲击，前向关联所体现的下游需求冲击在主权债务风险扩散中发挥更为重要的作用。
关键词：地缘政治 主权债务 全球生产网络 网络效应 HSAR模型
基金项目：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“经济金融风险在生产网络中的传导机制与防范对策研究”（编号：24FJYB027）、国家社会科学基金年度项目“‘双循环’背景下粮食安全与汇率稳定的交互影响、作用机理及应对策略研究”（编号：24BJY084）
作者简介：李政系天津财经大学金融学院教授，研究方向为风险管理、国际金融和金融市场；石晴系天津财经大学金融学院博士研究生，研究方向为国际金融；刘琦系天津财经大学金融学院硕士研究生，研究方向为风险管理和公司金融。
中国参与引领低空经济全球治理的现状、问题及路径研究
何 宁 刘 璐
内容提要：低空经济是中国提出的独有概念，包含低空航空器制造、低空基础设施建设、低空飞行保障服务、低空衍生综合服务四大类产业。中国在低空经济无人驾驶相关技术与产品领域具有一定优势，正加速完善国内治理体系，并通过在国际民航组织、国际标准化组织发起提案等方式参与低空经济全球治理。但中国低空经济产业结构失衡与国内治理体系滞后相互掣肘，国内规则制定及国际规则协调能力滞后于美欧发达经济体。在美欧加速低空经济规则演进和国际布局的背景下，中国低空经济安全发展、技术与产业优势被挤压等风险加剧。中国应优化低空经济产业结构、完善国内治理体系，加速重点领域国际规则制定并提高国际规则协调谈判能力，为中国低空经济发展构建良好的国内国际制度环境。
关键词：低空经济 无人驾驶航空器 国际规则 全球治理 产业环境
基金项目：工业和信息化部指导性软课题“低空经济法律问题及应对研究”（编号：GXZK2025-18）、北京社会科学基金重点项目“北京依托‘两区’平台积极融入共建‘一带一路’高质量发展研究”（编号：24JCB049）
作者简介：何宁系工信（北京）产业发展研究院高级工程师，研究方向为低空经济；刘璐系工信（北京）产业发展研究院助理研究员，研究方向为低空经济、全球治理。
中国—东盟产业链供应链合作：现状、问题与对策
杨 超 白光裕
内容提要：东盟是中国周边外交的优先方向和高质量共建“一带一路”的重点地区。在国内要素禀赋结构调整与外部地缘政治经济格局深刻演变的双重作用下，中国—东盟产业链供应链合作历经探索期、起步期和加速期，以越南、泰国和印度尼西亚等为重点合作国别，初步形成了融合互嵌的产供链合作关系。从代表性行业看，纺织服装产供链合作由成衣加工逐渐向纱线、面料、纺织机械等领域扩展，手机整机和元器件加工组装环节的合作关系日益深化，东盟成为中国光伏全球产供链的重要一环。双方合作亦面临一系列新问题，包括部分中间品高度依赖自华进口引发东盟担忧，原产地审查趋严，美国“毒丸条款”加速渗透，产业过快转移的负面效应等。建议通过深化政策沟通、适度扩大自东盟进口、提升在东盟采购比例、促进内外产业联动发展、加强政治经济风险防控等方式加以应对，不断巩固和深化互利共赢的产供链体系。
关键词：中国—东盟关系 产业链 供应链 对外直接投资 中间品贸易
基金项目：北京市社会科学基金重点项目“北京市提升国家自由贸易试验区建设水平研究”（编号：25JCB026）
作者简介：杨超系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院副研究员，研究方向为国际投资、产业链供应链、国际经济合作；白光裕系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院副研究员，研究方向为国际贸易、国际经济合作。
中国—东盟跨境贸易数字人民币支付结算的可行性、挑战与路径
庞冬梅 李 艳
内容提要：随着中国与东盟经贸往来的快速增长，构建高效、安全的跨境支付体系成为区域经济合作的重要议题。数字人民币作为央行数字货币，在提升支付效率、降低结算成本、强化监管合规和推动区域金融互联互通方面具有显著潜力。数字人民币作为跨境结算工具虽具备应用价值，但东盟国家对美元结算的路径依赖、各国金融监管体系的政策协同困境以及技术标准互认与数据安全问题等结构性障碍，仍是其在东盟地区落地的主要制约因素。为此，有必要推进协同监管，建立统一网络安全合作机制，推动完善金融基础设施合作，建设双边互信互认机制，破解双边跨境贸易支付面临的挑战，推动数字人民币在跨境贸易场景的落地应用，为全球央行数字货币治理提供中国—东盟方案。
关键词：跨境贸易 数字人民币 金融合作 数字货币桥 中国—东盟关系
基金项目：国家社会科学基金青年项目“央行数字货币跨境支付的法律规制研究”（编号：23CFX072）
作者简介： 庞冬梅系宁夏大学法学院副教授，研究方向为国际经济法、区域国别、数字货币法律制度；李艳系宁夏大学法学院硕士研究生，研究方向为国际经济法、数字法学。
美欧外商投资安全审查制度比较及启示
赖思行
内容提要：以美国、欧盟为代表的外商投资安全审查制度已成为中国企业对外投资准入阶段面临的重大挑战。鉴于国家安全内涵及外延的动态演变、美欧维护自身国际经济主导地位的迫切诉求、美欧制度构建的目标维度及对华关系与战略的差异，二者的外商投资安全审查制度在法律体系、立法动向、审查范围与标准、重点关注对象及年度报告机制等方面具有相似性，但在审查主体、立法沿革、法律强制力、程序机制、泛政治化倾向及严苛程度等方面存在不同。二者的立法模式是泛国家安全概念下硬法与软法在外商投资安全审查领域的典型范式，其中蕴含的先进立法经验可为中国完善外商投资安全审查制度提供有益启示。
关键词：外商投资 安全审查 国家安全 投资者保护 大国竞争
基金项目：暨南大学法学院/知识产权学院2024年拔尖创新人才培养项目“美欧外商投资安全审查制度比较研究”（编号：FXBC2024016）
作者简介：赖思行系暨南大学法学院/知识产权学院博士研究生，研究方向为比较民商法、国际法。
Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Trade-Oriented International Data Rules
and Development Trends
Zhou Nianli Li Jinzhe
Abstract: As the digital economy advances into a new stage driven by artificial intelligence (AI), trade-oriented international data rules are experiencing technological shocks and a crisis of institutional adaptability. In terms of privacy protection rules, the capability of cross-scenario data reuse and the “model memory” intrinsic to AI architectures have not only eroded the compliance boundaries of purpose specification and collection limitation principles, but also trapped individual participation mechanisms, centered on the right to erasure, in a technical dilemma. Regarding rules of cross-border data flows and localization, the attribute ambiguity surrounding intermediate data has catalyzed an escalation of regulatory intervention. This has further resulted in the defensive proliferation of security exception clauses. Concerning rules of data openness and innovation, the powerful de-anonymization capability of AI renders anonymization mechanisms ineffective. In addition, the asymmetry in access to computing power resources is turning formally open rules into a de facto monopoly by multinational giants, exacerbating the governance deficit and development divide in global digital trade. Looking ahead, trade-oriented international data rules will be grounded in substantive scenarios of technology application, establishing rules that integrate both technological inclusivity and granular governance. As a major country in digital trade, China should uphold technological pragmatism, and on the premise of balancing development and security imperatives, actively participate in and lead the reshaping of the international data governance framework in the intelligent era.
Keywords: artificial intelligence, data governance, trade-oriented data rules, cross-border data flow
Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Global Supply Chains and China’s Response
Yang Gongyan Ma Jingchen
Abstract: The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has profoundly influenced the evolution of global supply chains. AI is restructuring global supply chains by overturning the logic of division of labor based on labor costs, reconstructing innovation models at both national and firm levels, and propelling the reform of supply chain governance systems. Under the impact of AI, the evolution of global supply chain networks are likely to exhibit three emerging trends: first, growing regionalization and nearshoring, with deeper supply chain integration within the three major economic blocs of North America, Europe and Asia; second, the exacerbation of structural power imbalances among supply chain actors caused by AI, with intensified strategic competition among major participating countries over technology and standards; third, the widening deficit in global governance and the continuous worsening of inequality among countries due to the absence of an inclusive and universally beneficial global supply chain governance system. In this evolving landscape, China should strengthen Asia-Pacific regional coordination, consolidate its domestic foundations in computing power and energy, take the lead in reforming the global supply chain governance system, and proactively address potential risks and challenges.
Keywords: artificial intelligence, supply chain restructuring, state power, global governance system reform
Self-Reinforcing Anxiety: Mechanism and Paradox of US AI Competition With China
Qi Kai
Abstract: As the core driving force of the digital age, artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the global scientific and technological and even strategic competitive landscape. In response to China’s rapid rise in the field, the US has gradually developed an institutionalized, anxiety-driven competitive framework. This framework stems from the transformation of the US perception of its technological superiority over China − a shift that has moved from early, issue-specific vigilance over China’s scientific research breakthroughs to systemic panic over the transfer of technological power, and ultimately crystallized as a cross-party political consensus. During this process, the US has transformed its anxiety into a systematic containment policy toward China through domestic policy coordination, supply chain confinement, alliance network construction and value stigmatization. In practice, however, this framework has exposed deep paradoxes between the closed innovation ecosystem and the need for openness, between diverging alliance interests and strategic coordination, and between the pursuit of absolute security and cost overruns, undermining its competitive effectiveness. Based on its own development needs, China’s strategic responses should focus on remaining committed to building an open innovation ecosystem, precisely fragmenting external alliance systems, promoting the deep integration of AI technology with the economy and society, and providing inclusive solutions for global technology governance.
Keywords: AI, China-US strategic competition, sanctions and counter-sanctions, supply chain security, alliance politics
Geopolitical Shocks, Global Production Networks and Sovereign Debt Risk
Li Zheng Shi Qing Liu Qi
Abstract: In the context of intensifying geopolitical shocks and deep coupling in global production networks, sovereign debt risk is prone to cross-country co-movement and systemic accumulation. Accordingly, identifying the transmission mechanisms and dominant pathways of geopolitical shocks is of practical importance for strengthening sovereign debt risk early-warning systems and safeguarding international financial stability. This study constructs a country-level spatial weight matrix based on the global input-output linkage network and employs a heterogeneous spatial autoregressive model. Using indicators such as the country-specific geopolitical risk index and five-year sovereign credit default swap spreads, it empirically examines both the direct impact of geopolitical shocks on sovereign debt risk and the cross-border spillover effects transmitted through production networks from the perspectives of forward and backward linkages. The results show that geopolitical shocks not only significantly raise sovereign debt risk domestically, but also spread and escalate across interconnected economies along global production networks, with more than 30 percent of the total effect attributable to network transmission induced by input-output linkages. Moreover, compared with upstream supply shocks captured by backward linkages, downstream demand shocks reflected by forward linkages play a more important role in the diffusion of sovereign debt risk.
Keywords: geopolitical shocks, sovereign debt, global production network, network effects, HSAR model
China’s Participation in and Leadership of Global Governance
of Low-Altitude Economy: Current Status, Issues and Approaches
He Ning Liu Lu
Abstract: The low-altitude economy, a concept unique to China, encompasses four major sectors: low-altitude aircraft manufacturing, low-altitude infrastructure construction, low-altitude flight support services, and integrated services derived from low-altitude flight operations. China boasts certain advantages in unmanned driving technologies and products related to the low-altitude economy. It is accelerating efforts to improve its domestic governance system and participating in the global governance of the low-altitude economy by submitting proposals to the International Civil Aviation Organization and the International Organization for Standardization. However, the imbalanced industrial structure of China’s low-altitude economy and the lagging domestic governance system constrain each other, and China’s capacity for domestic rule-making and international rule coordination trails behind that of developed economies like the US and Europe. Against the backdrop of the US and Europe accelerating the rule development and international deployment of the low-altitude economy, China faces mounting risks such as those concerning the safe development of its low-altitude economy and the squeeze on its technological and industrial advantages. Therefore, China should optimize the industrial structure of the low-altitude economy, improve its domestic governance system, expedite the formulation of international rules in key areas, and enhance its capacity for international rule coordination and negotiation, so as to construct a favorable domestic and international institutional environment for its low-altitude economy development.
Keywords: low-altitude economy, unmanned aircraft, international rules, global governance, industrial environment
China-ASEAN Industrial and Supply Chain Cooperation:
Current Status, Challenges and Countermeasures
Yang Chao Bai Guangyu
Abstract: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a priority in China’s neighborhood diplomacy and a key region for high-quality Belt and Road cooperation. Driven by the dual forces of domestic factor endowment restructuring and profound shifts in the external geopolitical and economic landscape, China-ASEAN industrial and supply chain cooperation has evolved through exploratory, initial and acceleration phases. With Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia as key partner countries, China and ASEAN have initially formed an integrated and mutually embedded partnership in industrial and supply chains. With regard to representative sectors, cooperation in the textile and apparel industrial and supply chains has expanded from garment processing to sectors such as yarn, fabrics and textile machinery; cooperation in mobile phone manufacturing, including both whole devices and the processing and assembly of components, has deepened significantly; ASEAN has become an integral part of China’s global photovoltaic industrial and supply chains. Meanwhile, the partnership also faces a series of new challenges, including ASEAN’s concerns over its high dependence on imports of some intermediate goods from China, increasingly stringent rules of origin verification, the accelerating infiltration of US “poison pill” clauses, and negative effects arising from overly rapid industrial relocation. To address these challenges, it is recommended to deepen policy communication, appropriately increase imports from ASEAN, raise the proportion of procurement within ASEAN, promote linked development between domestic and overseas industries, and strengthen political and economic risk prevention and control. These measures will help consolidate and deepen a mutually beneficial and win-win industrial and supply chain system.
Keywords: China-ASEAN relations, industrial chain, supply chain, outward foreign direct investment, intermediate goods trade
E-CNY Payment and Settlement in China-ASEAN Cross-Border Trade:
Feasibility, Challenges and Pathways
Pang Dongmei Li Yan
Abstract: With the rapid growth of economic and trade exchanges between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), establishing an efficient and secure cross-border payment system has become a key issue in regional economic cooperation. As the central bank digital currency, the e-CNY holds significant potential in enhancing payment efficiency, reducing settlement costs, strengthening regulatory compliance, and promoting regional financial connectivity. Although the e-CNY has application value as a cross-border settlement tool, structural obstacles, such as the path dependence of ASEAN countries on dollar settlement, the policy coordination dilemma arising from various national financial regulatory systems, and issues concerning mutual recognition of technical standards and data security, remain the main constraints to its application in the ASEAN region. To this end, it is necessary to promote coordinated supervision, establish a unified network security cooperation mechanism, advance cooperation in improving financial infrastructure, and build bilateral mutual trust and mutual recognition systems. These efforts will address the challenges facing bilateral cross-border trade payments, facilitate the application of e-CNY in cross-border trade scenarios, and offer a China-ASEAN solution for the global central bank digital currency governance.
Keywords: cross-border trade, e-CNY, financial cooperation, digital currency bridge, China-ASEAN relations
Comparison and Implications of US and EU Foreign Investment Security
Review Systems
Lai Sixing
Abstract: The foreign investment security review systems, as exemplified by those of the US and the EU, have become significant challenges for Chinese enterprises at the market entry stage of outbound investment. Given the dynamic evolution of the connotation and extension of national security, the urgent demand of the US and the EU to maintain their dominant positions in the international economy, and the differences in target dimensions of their institutional building and their relations and strategies toward China, the foreign investment security review systems of the two share similarities in terms of legal framework, legislative trends, scope and criteria of review, key entities of concern and annual reporting mechanisms, but differ in review authorities, legislative history, legal binding force, procedural mechanisms, tendencies toward pan-politicization and degree of stringency. Their legislative models represent typical paradigms of hard and soft law under the broad concept of national security in the field of foreign investment security review, and the advanced legislative experience contained therein can provide valuable insights for China in improving its foreign investment security review system.
Keywords: foreign investment, security review, national security, investor protection, great power competition