2025年第2期（总434期）目录
大国竞争下的氢产业政策与世界市场格
王玉柱 辛钰莹
内容提要：绿色转型背景下，全球氢产业大发展或将改写世界能源市场格局。发达经济体竞争性产业政策、全球氢市场供需缺口、氢储运技术性壁垒和地理经济等因素将成为形塑世界氢市场格局的重要动力机制。产业政策竞争和大国地缘政治等因素将加剧世界氢市场分割，未来将逐步形成以环地中海地区、亚太地区、北美地区和中国市场为主体的“3+1”氢经济版图。中国与世界氢市场贸易关系主要受绿氢生产供给结构性缺口的影响，但考虑到中国国内绿氢生产潜能和日益增强的氢产业竞争力等因素，全球氢市场地缘竞争对中国市场的影响相对可控，且中国在其中将发挥日益突出的建设性作用。
关键词：氢能 产业政策 地缘竞争 竞争力 市场格局 碳中和
基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“颠覆性技术发展对新型国际关系形塑研究”（编号：23&ZD334）
作者简介：王玉柱系上海国际问题研究院世界经济研究所研究员，研究方向为世界经济、经济体制改革；辛钰莹系上海国际问题研究院研究生，研究方向为世界经济。
资源相互依赖的武器化与去武器化
宋亦明 姜礼豪 王文龙
内容提要：近半个世纪以来，复合相互依赖已经从国际政治经济关系的稳定器异变为跨国经济胁迫的重要武器。为了更好地理解相互依赖的“武器化转向”，本文在与经济制裁、经济方略、经济安全等文献对话的基础上，尝试探讨不同类型的资源相互依赖武器化程度存在差异的成因。研究发现，石油因其产销结构的高度分散、储备体系的完善、卡特尔组织的失效而呈现出去武器化态势。天然气因为运输高度依赖资产专用性较高的管道、遵循长约合同的商业方式、受制于明显的季节性因素而呈现出较低程度的武器化态势。以镓、锗等为代表的关键矿产因为储量的稀缺性、生产的集中性和功能的相对不可替代性而呈现出较高程度的武器化态势。可以预见，未来关键矿产将成为大国战略竞争的主要武器和国际经济纷争的重要原因。
关键词：相互依赖 经济方略 武器化 资源安全 化石能源 关键矿产
基金项目：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“‘一带一路’能源基础设施互联互通的政治风险研究”（编号：2023ZX026）
作者简介：宋亦明系北京外国语大学国际关系学院讲师，研究方向为能源政治经济学、经济方略；姜礼豪、王文龙系北京外国语大学国际关系学院硕士研究生。
国家安全视域下美国金融制裁风险与应对
张华威 张晓通
内容提要：作为经济制裁的一种特定形式，金融制裁通过限制金融资产与资金流动，对一国金融安全乃至总体国家安全产生深远影响。本文通过构建金融制裁影响国家安全的分析框架，指出在特定条件下金融制裁行动可能升级为国家安全事件，最终影响国家总体安全状态。本文以美国对俄罗斯金融制裁为例，回顾过去十年构成典型国家安全事件的三项重大金融制裁行动，并对俄罗斯不断完善的应对策略进行分析。为更加有效应对美国金融制裁带来的风险挑战，中国应以总体国家安全观为指导，统筹反金融制裁制度建设，建立健全国家安全事件的追踪与评估机制，针对可能出现的金融制裁情形制定预案，并积极打造“去美元化”的金融互联互通安全网。
关键词：国家安全 金融制裁 国家安全事件 威胁感知 金融安全
基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“百年变局下的全球治理与‘一带一路’关系研究”（编号：20&ZD147）
作者简介：张华威系复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院博士研究生，新开发银行廉政合规首席专家、国际制裁合规师，研究方向为全球治理、制裁与反制裁；张晓通系哈萨克斯坦管理经济战略研究院（KIMEP）中国与中亚研究中心主任、教授，武汉大学经济外交研究中心研究员，研究方向为经济外交和地缘政治。
西方制裁下的俄罗斯数字经济：困境、应对与前景
孙 倩 毕洪业
内容提要：作为俄罗斯日益重要的经济增长引擎，数字经济蕴藏着巨大的增长潜力和经济发展动力。俄乌冲突爆发后，美欧国家前所未有的制裁升级使俄罗斯数字经济在技术、人才、资金领域陷入发展困境。俄罗斯通过进口替代、平行进口、政策支持等一系列反制举措来缓解负面影响。由于制裁具有乘数效应，目前对俄罗斯数字经济的影响尚未完全显现。本文通过对俄罗斯数字经济的核心行业，即信息与通信技术行业的主要经济指标进行简化统计重建，对该行业到2030年的发展潜力进行预测分析，并在此基础上预估制裁的有效性及对俄罗斯数字经济的影响，从而对俄罗斯数字经济的前景作出判断。
关键词：制裁 数字经济 俄乌冲突 进口替代 ICT行业 科技竞争
基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“俄乌冲突僵局下中美俄三方博弈及其对国际秩序的影响研究”（编号：24BGJ016）
作者简介：孙倩系上海外国语大学国际关系与公共事务学院博士生，研究方向为数字经济、经济转型；毕洪业系上海外国语大学中亚研究中心主任、教授、博士生导师，研究方向为俄罗斯经济转型、国家总体安全。
海外子公司杠杆率与对外直接投资绩效
——来自中国跨国企业的证据
王碧珺 杨志宇 林 焰
内容提要：在国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下，探究对外直接投资绩效的影响因素事关中国跨国企业国际化成败，更是推动中国构建更大范围、更宽领域、更深层次对外开放格局的重点所在。本文基于手工建立的2006—2017年中国跨国企业海外子公司宏微观数据集，实证检验了海外子公司杠杆率对中国跨国企业对外直接投资绩效的影响及其作用机制。研究发现，海外子公司杠杆率的提高显著降低了母公司对外直接投资绩效。在一系列内生性检验和稳健性检验后，该结论依然成立。机制分析结果表明，过高的杠杆率显著抑制了子公司的研发创新活动，进而降低了母公司的对外直接投资绩效。进一步研究发现，子公司杠杆率对其经营绩效的抑制作用受到东道国（地区）发展程度、子公司规模及母公司对外直接投资模式的调节，在规模相对较小、基于绿地投资以及在发达国家（地区）建立的海外子公司中，杠杆率提高对经营绩效的抑制作用更加明显。
关键词：跨国公司 杠杆率 绩效 海外子公司 对外直接投资 研发创新
基金项目：中国社会科学院智库基础研究项目“安全、发展与开放关系的研究”（编号：ZKJC241804）、中国社会科学院学科建设“登峰战略”资助计划（编号：DF2023ZD33）
作者简介：王碧珺系中国社会科学院大学教授、中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员，研究方向为国际投资；杨志宇系中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院博士研究生，研究方向为国际投资；林焰系中国人民大学商学院、香港城市大学商学院博士研究生，研究方向为公司金融、实证资产定价。
双向FDI协调发展能否助推新质生产力？
——基于空间计量和面板门槛模型的实证检验
孙 丽 张 杰
内容提要：新质生产力对推进中国式现代化建设具有重要意义。本文基于2011—2022年中国30个省（区、市）的面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型、空间杜宾模型和面板门槛模型检验双向FDI协调发展与新质生产力的因果关系、空间溢出效应与门槛特征。结果显示：双向FDI协调发展显著促进了新质生产力的发展；双向FDI协调发展与新质生产力具有空间相关性；双向FDI协调发展不仅能促进本地新质生产力，还能通过空间溢出效应促进邻近省（区、市）的新质生产力；技术创新与产业结构升级是重要的影响机制；随着双向FDI协调发展水平的提升，其对新质生产力的促进作用表现出边际递增特征。研究结果既为高水平对外开放助推新质生产力提供了经验证据，也从双向FDI协调发展的视角为促进新质生产力提供了启示。
关键词：FDI 新质生产力 空间溢出效应 门槛效应 对外开放
基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“构建人类命运共同体进程中国际经贸规则重构博弈与中国的战略选择”（编号：19ZDA053）、辽宁省社会科学规划基金重大委托项目“辽宁打造东北亚开放合作枢纽地路径研究”（编号：L24ZD011）
作者简介：孙丽系辽宁大学国际经济政治学院教授，研究方向为国际贸易；张杰系辽宁大学国际经济政治学院博士研究生，研究方向为国际贸易。
RCEP伙伴国数字基础设施发展与中国OFDI区位选择
姜 巍 宋 晖
内容提要：数字基础设施逐步成为跨国企业OFDI区位选择的重要影响因素。基于单边投资引力模型，运用2010—2021年中国与14个RCEP伙伴国的面板数据，实证检验RCEP伙伴国数字基础设施发展对中国OFDI区位选择的影响效应和机制。研究发现，总体效应方面，RCEP伙伴国数字基础设施水平提升对中国OFDI产生显著的促进作用。国别差异方面，东盟数字基础设施水平提升对吸引中国OFDI流入有显著的促进作用，数字基础设施发展相对落后的国家，数字基础设施水平提升对中国OFDI的吸引效力更大。调节机制方面，RCEP伙伴国数字基础设施水平提升强化了当地市场规模对中国OFDI的正向影响，因而对中国市场拓展型OFDI产生正向促进作用；而RCEP伙伴国数字基础设施水平提升是否弱化了当地劳动力成本优势对中国OFDI的吸引力，以及是否强化了当地自然资源禀赋和战略资源禀赋对中国OFDI的吸引力，结论尚不明确。
关键词：RCEP 数字基础设施 对外直接投资 单边投资引力模型 调节效应
基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“多重复杂环境下我国实现更高水平对外开放的政策与路径研究”（编号：22&ZD061）
作者简介：姜巍系广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院教授，研究方向为开放经济、国际贸易与投资；宋晖系广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院副教授，研究方向为区域经济。
Hydrogen Industrial Policies and World Market Patterns Under Great Power Competition
Wang Yuzhu Xin Yuying
Abstract: In the context of green transition, the rapid development of the global hydrogen industry is poised to transform the pattern of the world energy markets. Competitive industrial policies in developed economies, the supply-demand gap in the world hydrogen markets, technical barriers to hydrogen storage and transport, and geo-economic factors will be important driving forces in shaping the world hydrogen markets. Factors such as competitive industrial policies and geopolitical rival of major powers will intensify the segmentation of the world hydrogen markets. In the future, a “3+1” hydrogen economy landscape will emerge, with the Mediterranean Rim, the Asia-Pacific region, North America and China as its main markets. The trade relations between China and the world hydrogen markets are mainly influenced by structural gaps in the production and supply of green hydrogen. However, taking into account factors such as China’s domestic green hydrogen production potential and the growing competitiveness of its hydrogen industry, the impact of the geopolitical competition in the world hydrogen markets on the Chinese market is relatively manageable, and China will play an increasingly prominent and constructive role in the markets.
Keywords: hydrogen energy, industrial policy, geopolitical competition, competitiveness, market pattern, carbon neutrality
Weaponization and De-weaponization of Resource Interdependence
Song Yiming Jiang Lihao Wang Wenlong
Abstract: Over the past half century, complex interdependence has changed from a stabilizer of international political and economic relations to a powerful weapon of transnational economic coercion. To better understand such a shift toward weaponization, this study attempts to explore the causes of varying weaponization degrees of different types of resource interdependence based on the review of existing literature on economic sanction, economic statecraft and economic security. The study finds that oil has shown a de-weaponization trend due to its highly dispersed production and marketing structure, the maturity of the reserve system, and the ineffectiveness of the oil cartel. Natural gas has shown a low degree of weaponization because of its high dependency on pipelines with high asset specificity, its business approach of following a long-term contract, and its obvious subjection to seasonal factors. Meanwhile, critical minerals represented by gallium and germanium have shown a high degree of weaponization because of the scarcity of reserves, the concentration of production, and the low fungibility of functions. It is foreseeable that in the future, critical minerals will become the main weapon of strategic competition among major powers and an important source of international economic disputes.
Keywords: interdependence, economic statecraft, weaponization, resource security, fossil energy, critical minerals
Risks of US Financial Sanctions and Countermeasures From Perspective of
National Security
Zhang Huawei Zhang Xiaotong
Abstract: As a specific form of economic sanctions, financial sanctions significantly affect a country’s financial security and even national security by restricting financial assets and capital flows. This paper constructs an analytical framework for assessing the impact of financial sanctions on national security, highlighting that under certain conditions, financial sanctions may escalate into national security events, ultimately affecting a country’s security status. Using the US financial sanctions against Russia as a case study, the paper comprehensively reviews three major financial sanctions that have constituted typical national security events over the past decade and analyzes the evolving and increasingly sophisticated countermeasures adopted by Russia. To more effectively address the risks and challenges posed by the US financial sanctions, China should adopt a holistic approach to national security to coordinate the development of anti-financial sanction mechanisms, establish robust systems for tracking and evaluating national security events, formulate contingency plans for potential financial sanctions, and actively construct a safety net for de-dollarized financial interconnectivity.
Keywords: national security, financial sanctions, national security events, threat awareness, financial security
Russia’s Digital Economy Development Under Western Sanctions: Predicaments,
Countermeasures and Prospects
Sun Qian Bi Hongye
Abstract: As an increasingly important growth engine in Russia, the digital economy holds huge growth potential and serves as a driving force for economic development. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the unprecedented escalation of sanctions by the US and European countries has plunged Russia’s digital economy into a development predicament in the fields of technology, talent, and capital. Although Russia has hedged the negative impact of sanctions through a series of anti-sanction measures such as import substitution, parallel imports, and policy support, the impact of sanctions on Russia’s digital economy is still unclear due to the multiplier effect of sanctions. Through a simplified statistical reconstruction of the main economic indicators of the information and communications technology industry (ICT) industry, the core sector of Russia’s digital economy, this paper forecasts and analyzes the development potential of this industry up to 2030, estimates the effectiveness of sanctions and their impact on Russia’s digital economy, and assesses the prospects of Russia’s digital economy.
Keywords: sanction, digital economy, Russia-Ukraine conflict, import substitution, ICT industry, scientific and technological competition
Leverage Ratio of Overseas Subsidiaries and OFDI Performance:
Evidence From Chinese Multinational Corporations
Wang Bijun Yang Zhiyu Lin Yan
Abstract: In the context of the new pattern of development that features positive interplay between domestic and international economic flows, exploring the influencing factors of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) performance is crucial for the internationalization of Chinese multinational corporations, and it is especially essential for China to advance a broader agenda of opening-up across more areas and in greater depth. Based on the manually collected microdata of Chinese multinational corporations’ overseas subsidiaries from 2006 and 2017, this paper empirically investigates the impact of the leverage ratio of overseas subsidiaries on multinational corporations’ OFDI performance and its mechanism. The results show that the increase of leverage ratio of overseas subsidiaries has a significant negative effect on multinational corporations’ OFDI performance, and the results still hold after a series of endogeneity tests and robustness tests. The mechanism analyses demonstrate that an excessively high leverage ratio significantly inhibits the R&D and innovation activities of overseas subsidiaries, thus reducing multinational corporations’ OFDI performance. Further research shows that the negative impact of overseas subsidiaries’ leverage ratio on their business performance is moderated by the development level of the host country (region), the size of overseas subsidiaries, and the OFDI strategy of the parent company. Among small overseas subsidiaries, located in developed countries (regions) and established through greenfield investment, the negative impact of an increased leverage ratio on business performance is more pronounced.
Keywords: multinational corporations, leverage ratio, performance, overseas subsidiaries, OFDI, R&D and innovation
Can Coordinated Development of Two-Way FDI Boost New Quality Productive Forces? Empirical Test Based on Spatial Measurement and Panel Threshold Models
Sun Li Zhang Jie
Abstract: Developing new quality productive forces is crucial for advancing Chinese modernization. Based on the panel data from 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2011 to 2022, this paper applies a two-way fixed-effects model, a spatial Durbin model, and a panel threshold model to test the causality, spatial spillover effects, and threshold characteristics of the coordinated development of two-way foreign direct investment (FDI) and new quality productive forces. The results are as follows: the coordinated development of two-way FDI significantly promotes the development of new quality productive forces; there is a spatial correlation between the two; the coordinated development of two-way FDI not only promotes the development of local new quality productive forces but also drives the development of new quality productive forces in neighboring provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) through spatial spillover effects; technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading are important influencing mechanisms; as the level of the coordinated development of two-way FDI increases, its promotion effect on the development of new quality productive forces shows marginal incremental characteristics. These results not only provide empirical evidence that high-level opening-up promotes the development of new quality productive forces but also offer insights for promoting such development from the perspective of the coordinated development of two-way FDI.
Keywords: FDI, new quality productive forces, spatial spillover effect, threshold effect, opening-up
Digital Infrastructure Development in RCEP Partner Countries and Location Choice of
China’s OFDI
Jiang Wei Song Hui
Abstract: Digital infrastructure has gradually become an important factor influencing the location choice of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) by multinational enterprises. Based on the unilateral investment gravity model, the panel data of China and 14 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) partner countries from 2010 to 2021 are used to empirically test the impact of digital infrastructure development in RCEP partner countries on the location choice of China’s OFDI and its mechanisms. The findings are as follows. In terms of overall effect, the improvements in digital infrastructure in RCEP partner countries significantly promote China’s OFDI. In terms of country differences, the improvements in digital infrastructure in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries exert a significant promoting effect on attracting China’s OFDI, and the improvements in digital infrastructure in countries with relatively backward digital infrastructure development have a greater effect on attracting China’s OFDI. In terms of moderating mechanism, the improvements in digital infrastructure in RCEP partner countries strengthen the positive impact of local market sizes on China’s OFDI, and thus positively facilitate China’s market-expanding OFDI. However, it is still not clear whether these improvements in RCEP partner countries weaken the attraction of local labor cost advantages to China’s OFDI, or strengthen the attraction of local natural and strategic resource endowments to China’s OFDI.
Keywords: RCEP, digital infrastructure, OFDI, unilateral investment gravity model, moderating effect