2025年第1期（总433期）目录

中国的大国经济发展轨迹与未来展望

王孝松　 王艳艳

内容提要：本文介绍了中国作为大国经济体的发展特征、成就、源泉、面临的挑战及未来展望。中国经济具备大国经济特征，包括规模经济、多元化产业结构、经济韧性、内外循环特征和内生性增长动力。中国经济取得的主要成就包括经济规模和增长速度显著提升，对外开放与全球化的积极贡献，产业结构和科技创新的持续优化，以及区域经济协调与城乡发展的有效推进。中国经济发展的源泉主要来自内部市场化改革和对外开放政策。中国经济面临全球经济增长放缓和内需不足等内外部挑战。未来，中国应继续实施扩大内需战略，建设统一大市场，构建大国产业联动机制，进一步推动高水平对外开放，以促进经济高质量和可持续发展。

关键词：大国经济　市场化改革　对外开放　高质量发展　双循环

基金项目：北京市习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心项目“增强国内国际两个市场两种资源联动效应研究”（编号：23LLLJA020）、“有效防范化解财政、金融领域重大风险研究”（编号：23LLYJC124）

作者简介：王孝松系中国人民大学经济学院教授，研究方向为国际贸易；王艳艳系中国人民大学经济学院博士生，研究方向为制度型开放。

全球公共品体系新格局：中国的角色与实践

徐秀丽　 刘雅菁

内容提要：在全球性问题加剧、全球化受阻的背景下，创新滞后、地缘政治紧张及国际合作中断等问题严重制约了全球公共品的供给，而其体系的嬗变深度嵌入全球治理发展进程。中国的历史经验与当代实践为全球公共品提供了独特的思想资源和路径。赓续古代“天下为公”的理念，经历探索、参与、付出与共建，中国已从全球治理的参与者转变为贡献者。中国通过创新实践、议题引领和整合协作等方式，在理念、体系、渠道、路径上创新构建了一套自下而上的既发挥自身优势，又符合全球需求的公共品供给体系。面对经济增长疲软和全球治理赤字等挑战，中国需进一步明确战略定位，推动多边合作与制度创新，提升治理效能，构建新世界主义知识体系，从而与各国携手提升全人类福祉。

关键词：公共品　中国实践　全球治理　多边合作　制度创新　“一带一路”

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国与‘一带一路’国家有效分享减贫经验的模式与策略研究”（编号：21&ZD180）、国家自然科学基金国际（地区）合作与交流项目“‘一带一路’背景下研究中国和中亚农业合作的方式路径和策略”（编号：71961147001）

作者简介：徐秀丽系中国农业大学人文与发展学院国际发展领军教授、博士生导师，中国农业大学国际发展与全球农业学院院长，研究方向为国际发展、中非合作、减贫经验分享等；刘雅菁系中国农业大学人文与发展学院博士研究生，研究方向为国际发展、南亚国家对外关系。

中美博弈下美国对华出口管制的态势与走向

程　慧　 邢政君

内容提要：中美博弈背景下，美国近两届政府不断推动美国出口管制政策改革，将其打造为对华实施经贸打压的重要制度工具。梳理特朗普第一任期和拜登政府在出口管制领域采取的措施和手段，发现近几年美国对华出口管制呈现出日益政治化、“黑名单”使用愈发频繁、对新兴技术的关注与日俱增、“长臂管辖”愈发扩张、意识形态化愈发凸显、联合围堵持续加强等特征，相关管制措施对中美两国在技术创新、企业经营及产业长期竞争力等方面都具有负面影响，且外溢效应对全球经贸环境产生冲击。未来，美国对华出口管制政策将持续加强，科技领域仍是美国出口管制重点关注领域，而当下“小院高墙”策略及多边联合围堵态势或存在变数。在此基础上，建议中国继续坚持统筹发展和安全两件大事，保持战略定力，扎实推进自身发展，同时加强对话，持续做重点国别工作，迟滞美国对华“脱钩”进程。

关键词：海外利益保护　议题重塑　单边主义　伙伴关系　经济安全

作者简介：程慧系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院贸易与投资安全所所长、研究员，研究方向为出口管制、产业安全；邢政君系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院贸易与投资安全所助理研究员，研究方向为出口管制、投资安全。

美国科技外交走向：协同还是胁迫？

——基于拜登政府的考察

王　丽

内容提要：科技已成为大国战略竞争的“战场”，美国越来越频繁地通过科技外交来捍卫国家安全利益。科技外交的概念由来已久，拜登政府的外交实践赋予了美国科技外交新的内涵。根据作用对象、战略目标与实施手段等维度的差异，美国科技外交表现为强调联合的协同型科技外交、强调竞争的胁迫型科技外交和强调价值观的援助型科技外交三种形态。其中，协同型科技外交的表现最为突出，国际影响最为广泛，在捍卫科技霸权方面具有统领作用。当前，美国的协同型科技外交以欧盟、日韩及印度等其他亚太国家为中心点，分别聚焦于人工智能、太空、半导体等关键新兴技术领域，并持续推进聚焦型、复合型以及综合型多边科技外交机制，试图达到提升美国国内科技实力与增强国际技术声望的双重目标。同时，美国的协同型科技外交也面临盟友协调性、机制约束性以及政策持续性等挑战。

关键词：美国外交　大国竞争　协同型科技外交　技术联盟　拜登政府　特朗普

基金项目：中国人民大学科学研究基金（中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助）（编号：23XNH041）

作者简介：王丽系中国人民大学国际关系学院博士研究生，研究方向为美国科技外交、大国科技竞争。

中国跨境电商进口转型升级的障碍与对策

依绍华　 梁　威　 汪红驹

内容提要：作为国际贸易新业态，跨境电商进口可助力消费与产业双升级，并呈现出从需求侧应对全球供应链格局调整挑战的溢出效应。自2016年至今，中国跨境电商进口逐渐从高速发展步入存量升级与模式调整阶段。当前，跨境电商进口模式进一步转型面临障碍，诸多因素使得跨境电商进口规模徘徊不前。新发展格局视角下，跨境电商进口未来发展以其发展阶段、业态和平台定位为基础，着眼于与跨境电商出口互促、与一般贸易进口错位、与本土产业融合进行创新。结合自贸试验区等平台制度优势和“丝路电商”等外部机遇，可从完善监管模式与税收政策、有序发展即买即提模式、先行先试监管制度创新、积极拓宽发展空间等着手，以期促进跨境电商进口溢出效应进一步显现。

关键词：跨境电商　转型障碍　转型升级　监管创新　自贸试验区

基金项目：中国社会科学院创新工程项目“建设现代化流通体系促进流通成本下降的作用机制与对策体系”（编号：2024CJY0102）

作者简介：依绍华系中国社会科学院财经战略研究院研究员，研究方向为流通理论与政策、消费经济、农产品流通；梁威系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院副研究员，研究方向为流通与消费；汪红驹系中国社会科学院财经战略研究院研究员，研究方向为宏观经济政策、金融学。

中国—东盟境外经贸合作区对双边经贸关系的影响

冯晓玲　 朱雅欣

内容提要：境外经贸合作区是中国与东盟实现跨境产业协作的核心载体。通过分析中国在东盟建设经贸合作区的现状、问题及其对中国—东盟经贸关系的影响，发现境外经贸合作区作为联通中外企业的重要载体和集聚平台对中国产品出口及东盟就业市场等产生积极影响，但也存在驻在国企业参与度不高、同质化竞争严重等问题。据此，建议对入园企业进行本地化改造，根据园区类型制定差异化发展策略，利用跨境电商激活园区潜力，提升资源开发的科技含量与附加值，发挥中欧班列物流枢纽作用，从而深化中国与东盟国家的经贸合作，助力双方经贸关系持续繁荣。

关键词：中国—东盟关系　境外经贸合作区　跨境经济合作　区域经济一体化

基金项目：大连海事大学2024年度智库专项重点课题“中美海上战略平衡背景下海上安全合作机制构建研究”（编号：3132024701)

作者简介：冯晓玲系大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院教授、博士生导师，研究方向为中美经贸关系、区域经济合作；朱雅欣系大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院硕士研究生。

制度距离、两国关系与中国企业跨国并购

——基于双重劣势与克服策略的视角

徐思行　 李玉花

内容提要：受外来者劣势和来源国劣势的影响，中国企业的跨国并购表现出增长率高、交易完成率低的特点。跨国并购涉及国家间关系与制度环境差异，以及二者的相互作用。同时，制度距离也是造成双重劣势的根源因素。本文使用2003—2019年中国企业在126个国家（地区）的跨国并购交易案例，探究两国关系和制度距离对跨国并购完成情况的共同影响。实证结果显示：东道国态度和制度距离分别对跨国并购完成率产生正向和负向影响。进一步分析发现：中国主动改善对东道国的态度可促进东道国态度的正向作用，并减弱制度距离造成的双重劣势危害，对跨国并购起积极作用；提升两国关系是有效克服中国企业跨国并购中双重劣势的宏观策略。

关键词：制度距离　两国关系　跨国并购　双重劣势　克服策略　对外直接投资

基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目“国际政治冲突对贸易的影响：理论与实证研究”（编号：71863010）

作者简介：徐思行系上海社会科学院世界经济研究所博士研究生，研究方向为国际投资；李玉花系浙江财经大学经济学院教授、博士生导师，研究方向为国际贸易、国际投资。

欧盟基础设施援助政策、实践和挑战

张　超　 陈小宁

内容提要：基础设施援助是援助方帮助受援国开展基础设施建设的重要方式。欧盟是全球最大的发展援助资金提供方之一，对发展中国家基础设施建设投入了大量资源。欧盟的基础设施援助强调发挥私营部门的作用，重视受援国相关能力的培养以及与其他援助方和金融机构等的协调，对改善发展中国家基础设施状况起到了一定作用。但是，欧盟在基础设施援助中突出价值观导向、高标准及自身地缘政治和经济目标，并过于依赖私营部门，限制了援助效果的发挥。从根本上说，欧盟将发展中国家的基础设施市场当作其价值观的“倾销地”和地缘政治野心的“试验场”，将自身地缘政治和经济利益置于发展中国家的发展利益之上，最终损害发展中国家的利益。

关键词：欧盟　发展援助　基础设施　“全球门户”计划　“一带一路”

基金项目：国家社会科学基金青年项目“美欧‘互联互通倡议’对共建‘一带一路’的影响研究”（编号：22CGJ043）

作者简介：张超系中国社会科学院欧洲研究所副研究员，研究方向为欧盟对外关系、中欧关系、国际发展合作等；陈小宁系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院副研究员，研究方向为中国对外援助、国际发展合作等。

Major Economy: Development Trajectory and Future Outlook of China’s Economy

Wang Xiaosong　Wang Yanyan

Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the development characteristics, achievements, driving forces, challenges, and future outlook of China as a major economy. China’s economy exhibits the characteristics of a major economy, including economies of scale, diversified industrial structure, economic resilience, dual circulation characteristics, and endogenous growth drivers. The major achievements of China’s economic progress include significant growth in economic scale and speed, substantial contributions to opening-up and globalization, continuous optimization of the industrial structure and scientific and technological innovation, as well as effective promotion of regional economic coordination and urban-rural development. China’s economic development is driven by internal market-oriented reforms and external opening-up policies. The Chinese economy faces internal and external challenges, such as weak global economic growth momentum and insufficient domestic demand. In the future, China should continue to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, build a unified national market, establish a national industrial linkage mechanism, and further promote high-standard opening-up, to foster high-quality and sustained economic development.

Keywords: major economy, market-oriented reforms, opening-up, high-quality development, dual circulation

New Pattern of Global Public Goods System: China’s Role and Practices

Xu Xiuli　Liu Yajing

Abstract: Against the backdrop of escalating global issues and impeded globalization, challenges such as lagging innovation, geopolitical tensions, and the disruption of international cooperation have severely constrained the supply of global public goods. The transformation of this supply system is deeply embedded in the development of global governance. China’s historical experience and contemporary practices provide unique intellectual resources and pathways for global public goods. From carrying forward the ancient concept of “the world is for everyone” to the stages of exploration, participation, contribution, and co-construction, China has evolved from a participant in global governance to a contributor. Through innovative practices, agenda-setting, and multi-source collaboration, China has established a bottom-up global public goods supply system that leverages its own strengths while addressing global needs in terms of concepts, systems, channels, and pathways. However, faced with challenges such as sluggish economic growth and global governance deficits, China needs to further clarify its strategic positioning, promote multilateral cooperation and institutional innovation, enhance governance effectiveness, build a cosmopolitan knowledge system, and colla-borate with other nations to improve the well-being of all humanity.

Keywords: public goods, China’s practices, global governance, multilateral cooperation, institutional innovation, Belt and Road Initiative

Evolution and Trend of US Export Controls Against China Under China-US Game

Cheng Hui　Xing Zhengjun

Abstract: In the context of China-US game, the past two administrations of the US have continuously promoted the reform of the US export control policies, making it an important institutional tool for implementing economic and trade suppression against China. By reviewing the measures adopted by the Trump (first term) and Biden administrations in the field of export controls, it is found that in recent years, the US export controls against China have exhibited such characteristics as increasing politicization of export controls, more frequent use of blacklists, heightened focus on emerging technologies, expanding the scope of long-arm jurisdiction, growing ideological overtones, and intensified joint containment. Relevant control measures have had a negative impact on technological innovation, corporate operations, and the long-term industrial competitiveness of China and the US, and their spillover effects have introduced significant disruptions to the global economic and trade environment. In the future, the US export control policies against China are likely to continue tightening, with the science and technology sector remaining a key focus. The US’ current “small yard, high fence” strategy and the multilateral joint containment trend may be subject to changes. On this basis, it is recommended that China continue to prioritize coordinated development and security, maintain firm strategic resolve, and steadily advance its own development. Meanwhile, China should enhance dialogue between China and the US, deepen engagement with major countries, and delay the US decoupling from China.

Keywords: export control, China-US game, Donald Trump, technological competition, semiconductor industry, supply chain

Trends in US Tech Diplomacy: Collaborative or Coercive?

– Analysis Based on Biden Administration

Wang Li

Abstract: As technology has emerged as the critical arena for strategic competition among great powers, the US is increasingly using tech diplomacy to defend its national security interests. The concept of tech diplomacy has a long history, and the diplomatic practices of the Biden administration have imparted new dimensions to this concept. Based on differences in objects of action, strategic goals, and implementation approaches, the US tech diplomacy is manifested in three forms: collaborative, coercive, and aid-based, which respectively emphasize coalition, competition, and values. Among them, collaborative tech diplomacy plays a leading role in defending the US technological hegemony, with the most outstanding performance and the most extensive international influence. At present, the US collaborative tech diplomacy, with the European Union, Japan, South Korea, India and other Asia-Pacific countries as the central pivot, focuses on key emerging technology fields such as artificial intelligence, space, and semiconductors. It continues to promote focused, synthesized, and comprehensive multilateral tech diplomacy mechanisms, attempting to achieve the dual goals of enhancing domestic technological strength and increasing international technological reputation. Meanwhile, the US collaborative tech diplomacy also faces challenges such as partner coordination, mechanism constraints, and policy continuity.

Keywords: American diplomacy, great power competition, collaborative tech diplomacy, technology alliance, Biden administration, Donald Trump

Barriers and Countermeasures for Transformation and Upgrading of

Cross-border E-commerce Imports in China

Yi Shaohua　Liang Wei　Wang Hongju

Abstract: As a new business form of international trade, cross-border e-commerce imports can contribute to the dual upgrading of consumption and industry and show the spillover effect of coping with the challenge of global supply chain adjustment from the demand side. Since 2016, cross-border e-commerce imports in China have gradually shifted from a stage of high-speed development to one characterized by stock renewal and mode adjustment. Currently, further mode transformation of cross-border e-commerce imports is faced with obstacles, and many factors make the scale of cross-border e-commerce imports stagnate. Under the perspective of the new development pattern, the future development of cross-border e-commerce imports is based on the development stage, forms of business and platform positioning, focusing on mutual promotion with cross-border e-commerce exports, complementary development to general trade imports, and innovation based on the integration with local industries. By combining the institutional advantages of platforms such as pilot free trade zones and external opportunities such as “Silk Road e-commerce,” it is proposed to start from improving the regulatory mode and tax policies, orderly developing the buy and pick-up mode, piloting the innovation of the regulatory system, and actively advancing development, so as to promote the further manifestation of the spillover effects of cross-border e-commerce imports.

Keywords: cross-border e-commerce, transformation barrier, transformation and upgrading, regulatory innovation, pilot free trade zones

Impact of China-ASEAN Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones on

Bilateral Economic and Trade Relations

Feng Xiaoling　Zhu Yaxin

Abstract: Overseas economic and trade cooperation zones (OETCZs) are the core platforms for cross-border industrial cooperation between China and ASEAN countries. This paper analyzes the current status and problems of the OETCZs built by China in ASEAN countries and their impact on China-ASEAN economic and trade relations, revealing that the OETCZs, as important aggregation platforms for connecting Chinese and foreign enterprises, have a positive impact on China’s goods exports and ASEAN’s job markets. However, there are also problems such as low participation of enterprises in the host countries and serious homogeneous competition. Accordingly, it is recommended to localize enterprises in the OETCZs, formulate differentiated development strategies based on the specific types of the OETCZs, leverage cross-border e-commerce to unlock the potential of the OETCZs, enhance the scientific and technological content and added value of resource development, and fully utilize the logistics hub function of the China-Europe Railway Express, in order to deepen economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN countries and promote the sustained prosperity of bilateral economic and trade relations.

Keywords: China-ASEAN relations, overseas economic and trade cooperation zones, cross-border economic cooperation, regional economic integration

Institutional Distance, Bilateral Relations and Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions by Chinese Enterprises: From Perspectives of Dual Liability and Coping Strategies

Xu Sixing　Li Yuhua

Abstract: Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by Chinese enterprises, influenced by both the liability of foreignness and the liability of origin, show a high growth rate but a low completion rate. Cross-border M&As involve the interaction of inter-state relations and institutional environment differences, which interact with each other, and institutional distance is also a fundamental factor contributing to the dual liability. This study uses cases of cross-border M&A transactions by Chinese enterprises in 126 countries and regions from 2003 to 2019 to explore the impact of bilateral relations and institutional distance on the completion of transactions. Empirical results show that the host country’s attitude and institutional distance exert positive and negative impacts on the completion rate of cross-border M&As, respectively. Further analysis reveals that China’s proactive efforts to improve its attitude toward the host country can enhance the positive impact of the host country’s attitude and mitigate the dual liability caused by institutional distance, thereby playing a positive role in cross-border M&As. Enhancing bilateral relations serves as an effective macro-strategy to address the dual liability faced by Chinese enterprises in their cross-border M&As.

Keywords: institutional distance, bilateral relations, cross-border M&As, dual liability, coping strategy, outward foreign direct investment

European Union’s Infrastructure Aid: Policies, Practices and Challenges

Zhang Chao　Chen Xiaoning

Abstract: Infrastructure aid is an important way for donors to help recipients in infrastructure development. The European Union (EU) is one of the world’s largest aid donors, and has invested significant resources in infrastructure development in developing countries. The EU’s infrastructure aid underlines the role of the private sector, recipients’ capacity building, and coordination with other donors and financial institutions, and has fostered infrastructure development in developing countries. However, the EU stresses value orientation, high standards and its own geopolitical and economic goals in its infrastructure aid, and has been overdependent on the private sector, which undercuts the aid effectiveness. Fundamentally, the EU treats the infrastructure market of developing countries as a “dumping ground” for its values and a “testing ground” for its geopolitical ambitions, and prioritizes its geopolitical and economic interests over the interests of developing countries. This is ultimately detrimental to the interests of developing countries.

Keywords: European Union, development aid, infrastructure, Global Gateway, Belt and Road Initiative