2024年第6期（总432期）目录

国家间政治关系如何影响经贸往来

——基于GDELT大数据对俄罗斯的实证研究

徐睿迪　 徐坡岭　　

内容提要：在国际局势动荡加剧的背景下，国家间政治关系如何影响双边经贸合作是值得关注的现实问题。本文利用2004—2022年俄罗斯与20个主要贸易伙伴国家的月度面板数据，应用贸易引力模型分析双边政治关系波动对经贸往来的影响。结果表明：国家间政治关系波动会显著影响俄罗斯与主要贸易伙伴国家的双边贸易往来，政治关系恶化会显著降低进口贸易，但其抑制作用在出口端并不明显，这从侧面体现出“去工业化”进程及输入型增长模式下俄罗斯经济结构的深层隐患。异质性分析结果显示：俄罗斯与欧洲国家、发达国家贸易往来更易受政治关系波动影响，而与非欧洲国家、发展中国家的贸易相对稳定。为解决反向因果造成的内生性问题，本文控制了双向固定效应，并分别使用2014年克里米亚事件和联合国大会投票数据作为政治关系的工具变量。此外，采用滞后项重新计量后，通过对比滞后不同期数的系数发现，双边政治关系波动对出口端的短期时滞影响更加显著，对进口端的长期时滞影响更加显著。

关键词：政治关系　经贸合作　GDELT　联大投票　经济制裁

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“新发展格局背景下中俄经贸合作高质量发展路径创新研究”（编号：21BGJ083）

作者简介：徐睿迪系北京大学区域与国别研究院博士生，研究方向为俄罗斯中亚经济；徐坡岭系中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所研究员、宁波大学中东欧经贸合作研究院首席专家，研究方向为世界经济、俄罗斯经济。

央企参与全球能源资源产业链供应链：现状、挑战与建议

庞超然　 武　芳　 王朝阳

内容提要：能源资源是国民经济和社会发展的物质基础，特别是在当前中国能源资源对外依存度较高的约束条件下，相关企业、特别是中央企业需要积极实施“走出去”战略，推动国际化经营水平和能力的提升。近几年，中央企业参与全球能源资源产业链供应链分工能力不断提升，规模体量逐步增加，技术水平和核心竞争力快速增强。但与西方跨国公司相比，中央企业盈利能力弱，国际化程度不高，上游勘探和下游运输环节发展不够充分，部分技术受制于人。能源资源领域是国际政治、经济、外交的关注焦点，在复杂多变的外部环境下，中央企业要更好发挥保障国家安全主力军的作用，积极抓住能源资源领域新一轮科技革命和产业变革机遇，结合全球低碳减排发展趋势，加快开拓海外资源，持续推动绿色转型，坚持创新驱动，构建富有韧性、坚强可靠的能源资源供应链，筑牢能源资源安全保障根基。

关键词：能源资源　产业链　供应链　中央企业　国际竞争力　“走出去”

作者简介：庞超然系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院副研究员，研究方向为世界经济、国际贸易、国际投资；武芳系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院对外投资合作研究所所长、研究员，研究方向为中国对外投资合作；王朝阳系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院硕士研究生。

美国海外利益保护机制评析

黄　河　 杨凯悦

内容提要：第二次世界大战之后，美国在海外利益保护上投入了更多政治、经济和军事资源，并在冷战期间形成完整的海外利益保护机制。自2008年全球金融危机以降，美国的全球霸主地位遭遇根本性挑战，其海外利益保护战略随之转变。奥巴马、特朗普和拜登三位总统在任期间，美国在外交政策、军事部署、经济战略及国际法律框架等方面的政策发生部分转变，对其海外利益保护的全球战略布局产生深远影响。在海外利益保护机制上，奥巴马政府力推议题重塑与争端解决，特朗普政府强调单边主义与贸易关系重塑，拜登政府主要采取伙伴关系与小多边主义政策。美国在海外利益保护的军事与经济手段使用上具有延续性，与此同时，为应对大国竞争，在外交原则上向现实主义转向明显，愈发强调经济安全，重视“经济大棒”的使用。中国及其他新兴经济体需要保持战略定力，积极在政治和法律层面寻找突破口和解决策略。

关键词：海外利益保护　议题重塑　单边主义　伙伴关系　经济安全

基金项目：2021年度贵州省社会科学规划课题“贵州加快构建西部陆海新通道‘物流+贸易+产业’运行新模式研究”（编号：21GZZB03）

作者简介：黄河系复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院教授、博士生导师，研究方向为国际政治经济学；杨凯悦系复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院研究生，研究方向为国际政治经济学。

美国数字货币“长臂管辖”及阻断应对

汪　伟

内容提要：美国“长臂管辖”作为一类特殊的对人管辖，并未脱离司法管辖的范畴。中国语境下对于“长臂管辖”的概念误读，契合了近年来美国“长臂管辖”的扩张实践。美国“长臂管辖”向数字货币这一新兴场域延伸，昭示了美国的地缘政治角力以及中美经济博弈。类型化梳理结果显示，美国的数字货币“长臂管辖”主要基于微弱的联系、宽泛的效果以及专断的权力。在中国依托“一带一路”倡议推进数字人民币国际化进程中，美国的数字货币“长臂管辖”极有可能威胁中国的国家安全、经贸合作和企业发展。为此，中国应从“攻防兼备”的战略视角出发，探索建立数字货币的区块链争议解决机制，同时构建“链上—链下”的全域反制机制。只有破除美国的数字货币“长臂管辖”，才能巩固数字人民币的安全防线。

关键词：数字货币　长臂管辖　阻断法　反外国制裁法　人民币国际化　中美关系

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“美国长臂管辖背景下阻断立法问题研究”（编号：21BFX161)、国家留学基金委公派博士生项目（编号：留金美[2024]16号）

作者简介：汪伟系浙江大学光华法学院与墨尔本大学法学院联合培养博士生、武汉大学国际法研究所科研助理，研究方向为国际法、数字法。

消除全球贫困的理论缺陷与中国经验

檀学文　 欧阳鑫

内容提要：为实现2030年消除全球贫困的可持续发展目标，需要回答两个问题：欠发达国家应采取何种减贫战略？国际援助方如何改善其对欠发达国家的援助与合作？本文通过理论梳理发现，已有减贫理论对国家自主权以及国家积极角色体现不足，援助理论不仅分歧巨大而且忽视了对受援国减贫战略的嵌入。本文通过对中国减贫经验的再归纳得出理论启示，进而对上述两个待解决的问题进行了回答。一方面，拓展“三支柱”战略，明确积极政府角色定位，建立面向消除贫困目标的“四支柱”战略；另一方面，尊重受援国主体地位，将外部援助有机嵌入受援国自主发展之中，建立嵌入式援助战略。本文结论是，重视中国减贫经验，尊重欠发达国家发展自主性和发挥积极政府角色，按照“四支柱”战略思路建设国家体制和培育国家减贫能力，按照嵌入式援助思路优化减贫国际合作机制。

关键词：消除贫困　中国经验　国家自主性　国际发展合作　嵌入式援助

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“全面建成小康社会背景下相对贫困治理的实现路径研究”（编号：22&ZD059）、中国社会科学院农村发展研究所创新工程研究类A类项目“面向2035年中国反贫困和促进共享繁荣发展战略与政策研究”（编号：2021NFSA02）

作者简介：檀学文系中国社会科学院农村发展研究所研究员，中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院教授、博士生导师，研究方向为贫困与福祉；欧阳鑫系中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院博士生，研究方向为减贫与发展。

美国调节贫富分化的政策措施与制度缺陷

王海霞　 赵　梅

内容提要：贫富差距过大是美国作为发达国家一直为人诟病的问题。从世界范围来看，美国的贫富差距水平远高于日本、德国、瑞典等多数发达国家；从美国自身来看，美国当前的贫富差距水平与19世纪和20世纪相比处于历史高位。多年来，为遏制贫富差距过大导致的不良后果，美国将调节收入分配、缩小贫富差距作为政府干预经济的重要手段，在初次分配中通过反垄断规制、促进就业及保护劳动者权益等措施维护市场公平；在再分配环节，建立以收入税为主的累进税制，调节收入增量与财富存量，并通过完善社会保障制度力求保障低收入群体的基本生活，提高低收入群体的自我发展能力。美国丰富的公益慈善资源也有效促进了资源由富裕群体向贫困群体的流动和转移。虽然美国调节贫富差距的政策措施在一定程度上遏制了贫富分化速度，但由于美国大多数群体秉持个人主义和自由主义的价值观念，政府对收入分配的干预和调节力度有限。繁琐的税收条款及程序、严苛的公共社会保障政策条件也削弱了其再分配制度的有效性。从根本上看，资本主义的内在矛盾和政策局限导致美国分配制度未能在改善贫富差距、促进社会公平中发挥持续有效的积极作用。

关键词：贫富分化　收入分配　财税政策　贫困治理　公益慈善 

基金项目：本文系国家社会科学基金重大项目、中国社会科学院博士后研究项目“美国的分配制度与贫富差距治理研究”的阶段性成果

作者简介：王海霞系中国社会科学院美国研究所博士后、经济学博士；赵梅系中国社会科学院大学特聘教授，中国社会科学院美国研究所研究员、博士生导师。

美国全球基建计划能否重建更美好世界？

——“全球基础设施和投资伙伴关系”的视角

高智君

内容提要：美国主导推出的“全球基础设施和投资伙伴关系”倡议，将数字技术、气候和能源安全、健康安全及性别平等作为优先投资领域，试图通过发挥西方资本的比较优势，拓宽对全球发展中国家基础设施投资，提供不同于“一带一路”倡议的替代方案。作为项目的直接受众，发展中国家能否真正从中受益，对该倡议的前景具有决定性作用。自2022年该倡议发起以来，已有数百个项目在亚非拉地区铺开，推进速度超出预期。该倡议的实施一定程度上有助于释放发展中国家在金融包容性、碳减排、医疗资源扩容和女性人力资本等领域的潜力。与此同时，项目的高标准与伙伴国国情之间的鸿沟愈发显著，七国集团能否解决这一问题将成为该倡议能否持续推进的关键变量。

关键词：“全球基础设施和投资伙伴关系”倡议　PGII　对外经济战略　基础设施　私人资本　发展中国家　“一带一路”

基金项目：中国社会科学院重大科研规划项目“‘一带一路’若干重大问题研究”（编号：01039902020008）

作者简介：高智君系中国社会科学院美国研究所助理研究员，研究方向为美国对外经济战略、国际政治经济学和发展经济学。

How Can Inter-state Political Relations Influence Bilateral Economic and Trade Exchanges? − Empirical Study of Russia Based on GDELT Big Data

Xu Ruidi　Xu Poling

Abstract: Amid the increasingly turbulent international landscape, it is crucial to examine how inter-state political relations influence bilateral economic and trade cooperation. This study employs monthly panel data of Russia and its 20 major trading partner countries from 2004 to 2022 and the gravity model of trade to investigate the impact of fluctuations in bilateral political relations on economic and trade exchanges. The findings indicate that fluctuations in inter-state political relations can significantly affect bilateral trade between Russia and its major trading partner countries; the deterioration of political relations markedly reduces imports; however, the inhibitory effect on exports is less pronounced. This situation indirectly underscores the deep-rooted challenges inherent in Russia’s economic structure in the context of deindustrialization and an import-led growth model. The heterogeneity analysis shows that Russia’s trade with European and developed countries is more susceptible to fluctuations in political relations, whereas its trade with non-European and developing countries exhibits greater stability. To address the endogeneity problem arising from reverse causality, this paper controls for two-way fixed effects and uses the 2014 Crimean events and UN General Assembly voting data as instrumental variables for political relations. After re-measurement using the lagged term, by comparing the coefficients of different lagged periods, this paper reveals that fluctuations in bilateral political relations exert a more significant impact on the short-term time lag on the export side and the long-term time lag on the import side.

Keywords: political relations, economic and trade cooperation, GDELT, UN General Assembly voting, economic sanctions

Participation of Centrally-administered SOEs in Industrial and Supply Chains of

Global Energy Resources: Current Landscape, Challenges and Recommendations

Pang Chaoran　Wu Fang　Wang Zhaoyang

Abstract: Energy resources are the material foundation for national economic and social development. Under the constraint of China’s current high dependence on foreign energy resources, relevant enterprises − especially centrally-administered state-owned enterprises (central SOEs) − must actively implement a “going global” strategy to enhance their international operations levels and capabilities. In recent years, the capability of central SOEs to participate in the division of labor in the industrial and supply chains of global energy resources has been consistently strengthened, with a gradual increase in their scale and volume and a rapid enhancement of their technological levels and core competitiveness. However, in comparison to Western multinational corporations, central SOEs exhibit weaker profitability and a lower degree of internationalization, with inadequate development in upstream exploration and downstream transportation; additionally, certain technologies are subject to foreign controls. The energy resources field is a focal point of international politics, economy and diplomacy. Facing complex and dynamic external environment, central SOEs should enhance their role as the cornerstone in safeguarding national security; actively capitalize on opportunities presented by the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation in the energy resources field while aligning with global trends in emission reduction and low-carbon development to expedite the exploration of overseas resources and consistently advance the green transition; pursue innovation-driven development and establish a resilient, robust and dependable energy resource supply chain to solidify the foundation of energy security.

Keywords: energy resources, industrial chain, supply chain, centrally-administered state-owned enterprises, international competitiveness, “going global”

Research on Mechanism of US Overseas Interest Protection

Huang He　Yang Kaiyue

Abstract: After the Second World War, the US invested more political, economic and military resources in protecting its overseas interests, and established a comprehensive overseas interest protection mechanism during the Cold War. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the US global hegemonic position has encountered fundamental challenges, leading to a gradual shift in its overseas interest protection strategy. During the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations, the US made partial adjustments to its strategies in foreign policy, military deployment, economy and international legal frameworks, profoundly affecting its global strategic layout for protecting overseas interests. To protect overseas interests, the Obama administration primarily adopted a mechanism of issue reshaping and dispute resolution, the Trump administration focused on unilateralism and the reshaping of trade relations, and the Biden administration leaned towards partnerships and minilateralism strategies. The US demonstrates continuity in its use of military and economic means for protecting overseas interests. Meanwhile, in response to great power competition, the US has shown a clear shift towards realism in its diplomatic principles, increasingly emphasizing economic security and the use of the “economic stick.” China and other emerging economies must maintain strategic focus and proactively explore avenues for breakthroughs and solutions within the political and legal frameworks.

Keywords: overseas interest protection, issue reshaping, unilateralism, partnerships, economic security

US “Long-arm Jurisdiction” Over Digital Currencies and Its Blocking Countermeasures

Wang Wei

Abstract: The concept of the US “long-arm jurisdiction,” as a special type of in personam jurisdiction, does not depart from the category of judicial jurisdiction. The misinterpretation of the “long-arm jurisdiction” concept in the Chinese context coincides with the expansion of the US “long-arm jurisdiction” in recent years. The extension of the US “long-arm jurisdiction” to the emerging sector of digital currency indicates the US geopolitical maneuvering and the China-US economic game. The typological analysis reveals that the US “long-arm jurisdiction” over digital currencies is mainly based on weak connections, broad effects, and arbitrary power. As China promotes the internationalization of the digital yuan through the Belt and Road Initiative, the US “long-arm jurisdiction” over digital currencies is likely to pose a threat to China’s national security, economic and trade cooperation, and enterprise development. In this regard, China should adopt a strategic perspective of “both offense and defense” to explore the establishment of a blockchain dispute resolution mechanism for digital currencies while also developing a comprehensive countermeasure system that operates both on-chain and off-chain. Only by countering the US “long-arm jurisdiction” over digital currencies can China strengthen the security framework for the digital yuan.

Keywords: digital currency, long-arm jurisdiction, Blocking Statute, Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, yuan internationalization, China-US relations

Eradicating Global Poverty: Inadequacy of Existing Theories and China’s Experience

Tan Xuewen　Ouyang Xin

Abstract: In order to achieve the sustainable development goal of eradicating extreme poverty for all people everywhere by 2030, two questions need to be answered: what poverty alleviation strategies should be adopted by less developed countries, and how can aid donors improve their assistance and cooperation modalities for less developed countries? Through theoretical review, this paper finds that existing theories of poverty alleviation do not adequately reflect the autonomy and the active role of the state, and that aid theories are not only highly divergent but also neglect embeddedness in poverty alleviation strategies in recipient countries. A summary of China’s experience in poverty alleviation yields theoretical insights and then answers the above two questions. On the one hand, the “three-pillar” strategy should be expanded to a “four-pillar” strategy oriented towards poverty eradication, with a clear delineation of the role of the active government; on the other hand, the autonomy of the recipient countries should be respected, and foreign aid should be embedded in the autonomous development of the recipient countries, so as to establish an embedded aid strategy. The conclusion emphasizes the necessity of focusing on China’s experience in poverty alleviation, respecting the development autonomy of less developed countries, playing a role of the active government, establishing national institutions and cultivating poverty alleviation capacity in accordance with the “four-pillar” strategy, and optimizing international cooperation mechanisms for poverty alleviation based on the idea of embedded aid.

Keywords: poverty eradication, China’s experience, state autonomy, international development cooperation, embedded aid

Policy Measures and Institutional Deficiencies in Regulating Wealth Gap in US

Wang Haixia　Zhao Mei

Abstract: The wide wealth gap in the US, a developed country, has long been criticized. From a global perspective, the wealth gap in the US is much larger than that in most developed countries, such as Japan, Germany, and Sweden. From a national perspective, the current wealth gap in the US is at a historical peak compared with that in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. In order to mitigate the adverse consequences of the wide wealth gap, the US government has been regulating income distribution and narrowing the wealth gap as an important means of government intervention in the economy: in the primary distribution, it ensures market equity through anti-monopoly regulations, employment promotion, protection of the rights and interests of workers, and other measures; in the redistribution, it establishes a progressive tax system based on income taxes to regulate the income increment and the stock of wealth, and through the improvement of the social security system, it strives to safeguard the basic livelihoods of low-income groups and improve their self-development ability. The abundant charity resources in the US also effectively promote the flow and transfer of resources from the rich to the poor. While the policy measures implemented in the US to reduce the wealth gap have, to some extent, mitigated its progression, the predominance of individualistic and liberal values among most groups limits the government’s capacity for intervention and regulation in income distribution. Complex tax clauses and procedures, along with the stringent requirements associated with public social security policies, undermine the effectiveness of the redistribution system. Fundamentally, the intrinsic contradictions and policy constraints of capitalism have hindered the US distribution system from playing a sustained and effective role in reducing the wealth gap and promoting social fairness.

Keywords: polarization between the rich and the poor, income distribution, fiscal and tax policies, poverty governance, public charity

Can US-led Global Infrastructure Initiative Build Back Better World:

From Perspective of Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment

Gao Zhijun

Abstract: The Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) led by the US prioritizes investment in digital technology, climate and energy security, health security, and gender equality, aiming to expand infrastructure investment in developing countries by capitalizing on the comparative advantages of Western capital while offering an alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative. Whether developing countries, the direct beneficiaries of the PGII projects, can truly benefit from it is crucial to the PGII’s prospects. Since the PGII’s launch in 2022, hundreds of projects have been implemented in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with progress surpassing initial expectations. The PGII, to some extent, contributes to unlocking the potential of developing countries in fields such as financial inclusion, carbon emission reduction, enhancement of healthcare resources, and the development of female human capital. Meanwhile, the gap between the high standards of the PGII projects and partner countries’ national conditions is becoming increasingly salient. Whether the Group of Seven could resolve this discrepancy is a critical determinant for the PGII’s prospects.

Keywords: Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, foreign economic strategy, infrastructure, private capital, developing countries, Belt and Road Initiative