2024年第4期（总430期）目录

佟家栋　 于　博　　

内容提要：新质生产力是新技术条件下最先进的生产力，对新质生产力的认识是在经济全球化逐步深化、调整、发展的背景下总结归纳而来的。为实现高质量发展的目标，需要代表新质生产力的新一轮科技革命和产业革命的成果来推动传统产业的改造、新产业的成长和未来产业的培育。这一过程离不开高水平对外开放，新质生产力与高水平对外开放在目标、逻辑、功能、价值四个方面具有内在一致性，新质生产力与高水平对外开放是把握新发展阶段、贯彻新发展理念、构建新发展格局的一体两面。新质生产力的发展建立在经济全球化和高水平对外开放基础之上，发展新质生产力必须构筑高水平对外开放新优势，稳步扩大规则、规制、管理、标准等制度型开放。

关键词：新质生产力　高水平对外开放　科技革命　高质量发展　制度型开放

基金项目：研究阐释党的十九届四中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“加快自由贸易试验区、自由贸易港等对外开放高地建设研究”（编号：20ZDA052）

作者简介：佟家栋系南开大学讲席教授、博士生导师，研究方向为国际贸易；于博系南开大学经济学院博士研究生，研究方向为数字经济。

新质生产力与国家创新体系：互动机制与现实逻辑

梁昊光　 岳启明

内容提要：国家创新体系创新范式的转变，以及以智能化、网络化、数字化为主导的人工智能、物联网和大数据等新兴技术发展为国家创新带来新的机遇和挑战。劳动者、资本、科学技术、自然条件、信息数据、社会过程这六大要素不断变化，新质生产力应运而生。国家创新体系中的创新体系政策、人才培养、科技金融建设及信息化发展对新质生产力产生了正面推动作用。在国家创新体系变革的背景下发展新质生产力是实现中国式现代化最终目标的具体实践，是国家创新模式转变的科学回答，是绿色可持续发展的中国方案，也是应对国际环境变化的平衡之道。

关键词：新质生产力　国家创新体系　创新驱动　中国式现代化　高质量发展

基金项目：中国科学院发展规划局战略研究专项“科技支撑中国式现代化建设研究”（编号：GHJ-ZLZX-2023-07）

作者简介：梁昊光系中国科学院中国现代化研究中心研究员，研究方向为国际合作、西方经济学；岳启明系中国科学院中国现代化研究中心助理研究员，研究方向为现代化、科技政策。

党的十八大以来中国对外投资的主要成就与经验

卢进勇　 王粉粉　 陈虹曦

内容提要：党的十八大以来，中国对外投资取得历史性成就。对外投资规模、结构、质量和效益实现新突破，对外投资管理和服务体系实现根本性变革，对外投资合作平台尤其是境外经贸合作区建设迈向高水平、高质量发展阶段。对外投资的全面发展有力推动了高质量共建“一带一路”和中国跨国公司的发展。中国对外投资事业蓬勃发展过程中积累了丰富的经验，国家战略引领、企业自主决策、政府引导服务和国际协调合作是中国对外投资事业取得显著成就的重要因素。

关键词：党的十八大　对外投资　境外经贸合作　“一带一路”　跨国公司

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国国际投资史研究”（编号：19ZDA059）

作者简介：卢进勇系对外经济贸易大学国际经贸学院教授，研究方向为国际投资与跨国公司；王粉粉系江西财经大学经济学院讲师，研究方向为国际投资与贸易；陈虹曦系对外经济贸易大学国际商务战略研究院博士研究生，研究方向为国际投资与贸易。

美元主导国际货币体系下金融风险的演化与治理——资产估值的视角

李成威　 詹　卉

内容提要：在以美元为主导的国际货币体系下，金融危机的实质是美元周期与本国经济基本面“错位”导致的资产估值危机。换言之，美国利用美元的国际货币地位和美债作为全球资产定价之锚的地位，构建起“美元—美债”循环体系，实现利益本国化和风险全球化，进而影响其他国家的资产估值。资产估值一旦形成，在一定条件下便具有自我实现机制，由此可能引发金融危机。当前中国经济发展面临较大压力，虽然相关指标仍在安全范围内，但外部风险对金融体系的影响不容忽视，如果应对不当，有可能陷入“隐性金融危机”。防范与化解金融危机应当构建以稳定资产估值为核心的政策体系，通过财政货币政策协同发力，在稳定资产估值过程中发挥基础作用，并以大国财政思维改善全球风险分配格局。

关键词：美元周期　资产估值　金融危机　财政货币政策协同　大国财政

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“国家治理现代化视角下的财税体制研究”（编号：17VZL011）、北京市社会科学基金重点项目“推动北京经济高质量发展的财税政策研究”（编号：20JJA002）

作者简介：李成威系中国财政科学研究院全球风险治理研究中心研究员、博士生导师，研究方向为全球风险治理、大国财政；詹卉系北京第二外国语学院经济学院副教授，研究方向为财政理论与政策。

“反胁迫”还是“胁迫”：欧盟《反经济胁迫条例》评析

解楠楠

内容提要：2023年11月欧盟理事会正式签署的《保护欧盟及其成员国免受第三国经济胁迫条例》具有“反胁迫”与“胁迫”的双重意图。一方面，《条例》立法背景由“反美国经济胁迫”逐渐转向为欧盟“胁迫”第三国辩护；另一方面，相较于2021年草案文本，2023年最终文本在内容设计上扩大了适用范围，授权欧盟理事会决定是否构成“经济胁迫”行为，进一步明确了欧盟的利益，强化了欧盟推进战略自主、实现更大地缘政治利益的战略目标。《条例》的生效在一定程度上会加剧中欧经贸关系政治化与安全化倾向，增加双边经贸摩擦，降低双方企业投资信心。鉴于此，中国应从舆论、外交及法律等多维度提前做好风险规避与应对预案。

关键词：《反经济胁迫条例》　经济胁迫　战略自主　经济外交

基金项目：国家社会科学基金青年项目“欧盟战略自主的选择机制、实施路径与中国应对研究”（编号：23CGJ046）

作者简介：解楠楠系郑州大学政治与公共管理学院讲师、郑州大学当代资本主义研究中心研究员，研究方向为欧洲一体化、地缘政治、经济外交。

印度“全球南方”政策定位、实践路径及其限度

郑海琦

内容提要：近年来，印度将“全球南方”作为重点议程推进，谋求在“全球南方”的领导地位，强调“全球南方”是改革全球治理秩序、获取战略自主、建立多极世界的主要支撑，并将自身视为连接“全球南方”和西方国家的桥梁。实践层面，印度在卫生和经济领域加大对“全球南方”的援助力度，加大基础设施投资，在国际多边平台表达“全球南方”的利益诉求，完善印度与“全球南方”的合作机制。印度实施“全球南方”政策的动因包括全球治理秩序受挫加剧“全球南方”困境，对冲中国在“全球南方”的影响力，以及获取“全球南方”支持从而寻求大国地位。印度“全球南方”政策的高度摇摆性、自身能力的不足，以及与西方国家的战略联系使其难以真正代表“全球南方”，因而政策具有较大局限性。对此，中国既要巩固与其他“全球南方”国家的合作基础，维护自身发展中国家地位，也要与印度围绕“全球南方”探索更大的合作空间。

关键词：印度外交　“全球南方”　全球治理　大国博弈　莫迪政府　战略自主

基金项目：国家社会科学基金青年项目“印度数字经济外交对中国的影响与启示研究”（编号：23CGJ051）

作者简介：郑海琦系中共中央党校（国家行政学院）国际战略研究院助理研究员，研究方向为印度外交政策、国家安全。

北极航道建设对中国的机遇、挑战及应对

王华春　 李志鹏　 李　琛　 齐冠钧

内容提要： 全球气候变暖导致自然环境和生态系统变化，世界各国对蕴藏资源开发充满期待，对北极圈的关注与日俱增。从北极航道开辟贸易新航路、拓展港埠发展新经济、构建国际贸易新格局的历史机遇来看，参与北极航道建设符合中国的发展利益。然而，北极航道建设呈现大国博弈状态，乌克兰危机爆发后，美欧国家加大对俄罗斯制裁，北极理事会遭遇停摆危机，美国和俄罗斯轮番在北极发动大规模军演导致区域安全不确定性增加，诸多不利因素使中国参与北极航道建设面临重重挑战。新形势下，中国可在提高北极治理话语权、强化政策引领、加强国际合作与交流、坚持可持续发展原则、开展关于北极航道航行安全合作等方面与北极国家展开交流与合作，积极推动北极航道建设。

关键词：北极航道　北极战略　地缘政治　“一带一路”

作者简介：王华春系国家电网新疆电力有限公司哈密供电公司发展策划部主任，李志鹏系国家电网新疆电力有限公司哈密供电公司经济技术研究所主任，李琛系国家电网新疆电力有限公司哈密供电公司职员；齐冠钧系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院对外贸易研究所助理研究员，研究方向为国际经济与贸易。

中美农产品贸易是否存在“生产率悖论”——基于增加值视角的检验

任　慧　 林　海

内容提要：全球价值链背景下，中美农产品双边贸易实际收益水平与传统贸易数据存在背离。通过从增加值视角核算中美两国间真实贸易情况，并构建增加值贸易引力模型探究生产率影响效应，结果表明：在中美农产品双边贸易模型中，全要素生产率的提高显著降低了两国农产品行业的总出口和总增加值出口；在中美各自的对外贸易模型中，总出口受本国生产率影响为正，增加值层面两国都存在明显的“生产率悖论”问题。中美两国生产率对农产品双边贸易收益的促进效应体现在出口聚集型行业，即农产品行业需要更多地开放出口市场，参与全球价值链，才能通过转型升级、提高生产率来促进贸易收益。

关键词：贸易收益　增加值　全要素生产率　引力模型　“生产率悖论”

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“重大公共卫生事件对我国全球价值链分工地位的影响机制及对策研究”（编号：20&ZD119）

作者简介：任慧系农业农村部农业贸易促进中心助理研究员，研究方向为国际贸易、农业经济；林海系中国农业大学经济管理学院副教授，研究方向为农产品贸易、农村发展。

New Quality Productive Forces and High-standard Opening-up:

Necessity, Consistency, and Realization Pathways

Tong Jiadong　Yu Bo

Abstract: New quality productive forces represent the most advanced form of productive forces under new technological conditions. The understanding of new quality productive forces is derived from a comprehensive analysis of the evolving dynamics, adjustments, and progressions of economic globalization. To achieve high-quality development, it is essential to leverage the achievements of the latest technological and industrial revolutions, which represent new quality productive forces, to facilitate the transformation of traditional industries, the growth of emerging industries, and the nurturing of future industries. This process is closely linked to high-standard opening-up. New quality productive forces and high-standard opening-up share an intrinsic consistency across four dimensions: objective, logic, functionality, and value. The two form an integral part of embracing the new development stage, applying the new development philosophy, and creating a new pattern of development. The development of new quality productive forces is based on economic globalization and high-standard opening-up. Consequently, it is imperative to establish new advantages of high-standard opening-up and continuously expand institutional opening-up encompassing rules, regulations, management, and standards.

Keywords: new quality productive forces, high-standard opening-up, technological revolution, high-quality development, institutional opening-up

New Quality Productive Forces and National Innovation System:

Interaction Mechanisms and Realistic Logic

Liang Haoguang　Yue Qiming

Abstract: The transformation of the innovation paradigm in the national innovation system, coupled with the emergence of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and big data, dominated by intelligence, networking, and digitization, has brought new opportunities and challenges to national innovation. Amidst the ongoing evolution of the six factors of laborers, capital, science and technology, natural conditions, information and data, and social processes, new quality productive forces have emerged. Innovation system policies, talent cultivation, science and technology finance construction, and informatization development in the national innovation system have all positively promoted new quality productive forces. Developing new quality productive forces amidst the transformation of the national innovation system is a concrete practice to achieve the ultimate goal of Chinese modernization, a scientific response to the transformation of the national innovation model, a Chinese solution for green and sustainable development, and a balanced approach to cope with changes in the international environment.

Keywords: new quality productive forces, national innovation system, innovation-driven, Chinese modernization, high-quality development

Main Achievements and Experience of China’s Foreign Investment

Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC

Lu Jinyong　Wang Fenfen　Chen Hongxi

Abstract: Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), China has achieved historic accomplishments in its foreign investment. New breakthroughs have been made in the scale, structure, quality and efficiency of foreign investment, fundamental changes have been achieved in the foreign investment management and service system, and the cooperation platforms for foreign investment, especially the construction of overseas economic and trade cooperation zones, have advanced towards high-level and high-quality development. The comprehensive development of foreign investment has significantly propelled the high-quality construction of the Belt and Road Initiative and the substantial growth of Chinese multinational corporations. In the vigorous development of China’s foreign investment undertakings, a wealth of experience has been accumulated. National strategic leadership, enterprises autonomous decision-making, government guidance services, and international coordination and cooperation are all important factors contributing to the remarkable achievements in China’s foreign investment.

Keywords: the 18th National Congress of the CPC, foreign investment, overseas economic and trade cooperation, Belt and Road Initiative, multinational corporations

Evolution and Governance of Financial Risks Under International Monetary System Dominated by US Dollar: From Perspective of Asset Valuation

Li Chengwei　Zhan Hui

Abstract: Under the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar, the essence of a financial crisis is an asset valuation crisis caused by the mismatch between the US dollar cycle and the fundamentals of the domestic economy. In other words, the US utilizes the US dollar’s position as the international currency and the US bonds’ position as the anchor of global asset pricing to construct a “US dollar-US bond” circular system, achieving localization of interests and globalization of risks, and influencing asset valuations in other countries. Once asset valuation is established, it may trigger a self-fulfilling mechanism under certain conditions, which may lead to the outbreak of financial crises. Currently, China’s economy is facing great pressure, although relevant indicators are still within a safe range. Nevertheless, the impact of external risks on the financial system cannot be ignored. Mishandling may lead to an “implicit financial crisis.” To prevent and resolve financial crisis, a policy system with stable asset valuations as the core should be established, and fiscal-monetary coordination should play a cornerstone role in stabilizing asset valuations. The global risk allocation pattern should be improved with the fiscal thinking of major countries.

Keywords: US dollar cycle, asset valuation, financial crisis, fiscal-monetary coordination, finance of major countries

“Anti-coercion” or “Coercion”?

Evaluation and Analysis of EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument

Xie Nannan

Abstract: Regulation (EU) 2023/2675 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 November 2023 on the protection of the Union and its Member States from economic coercion by third countries (the Anti-Coercion Instrument) serves a dual purpose of “anti-coercion” and “coercion.” On the one hand, the legislative background of the Anti-Coercion Instrument has gradually evolved from “anti-U.S. economic coercion” to the EU’s defense of “coercion” by third countries; on the other hand, compared with the 2021 draft text, the 2023 final text expands the scope of application of the Anti-Coercion Instrument in terms of content design and authorizes the Council of the EU to determine whether a behavior constitutes “economic coercion,” further clarifying the interests of the EU and reinforcing its strategic goal of promoting strategic autonomy and securing greater geopolitical interests. The entry into force of the Anti-Coercion Instrument will, to a certain extent, aggravate the tendency of politicization and securitization of Sino-European economic and trade relations, increase bilateral economic and trade friction, and reduce the investment confidence of Chinese and European enterprises. In view of this, China should avoid the risk and develop countermeasures through multiple dimensions, including public opinion, diplomatic measures, and legal frameworks.

Keywords: the Anti-Coercion Instrument, economic coercion, strategic autonomy, economic diplomacy

India’s “Global South” Policy Positioning, Practical Approaches, and Limits

Zheng Haiqi

Abstract: In recent years, India has made the “Global South” a key agenda and sought leadership of the “Global South.” India defines the “Global South” as a key lever for reforming the global governance order, obtaining strategic autonomy, and building a multipolar world. Besides, India regards itself as a bridge connecting the “Global South” and Western countries. At the practical level, India has increased health and economic assistance to the “Global South” and infrastructure investment. India has also expressed the interest demands of the “Global South” in international multilateral platforms and improved its cooperation mechanism with the “Global South.” India’s “Global South” policy is motivated by the frustration of the global governance order which deteriorates the dilemma of the “Global South,” India’s desire to hedge China’s influence in the “Global South,” and its aspiration to attain a leading power status through the support of the “Global South.” India’s highly wavering policy towards the “Global South,” inadequate capabilities, and deep strategic connections with the Western countries make it difficult for India to truly represent the interests of the “Global South.” As a result, India’s policy may be faced with considerable restrictions. In this regard, China needs to consolidate its cooperation foundation with other “Global South” countries, safeguard its status as a developing country, and explore potential cooperation with India within the framework of the “Global South.”

Keywords: India’s diplomacy, “Global South”, global governance, great power game, Modi administration, strategic autonomy

Opportunities, Challenges and Countermeasures Brought by Development of

Arctic Shipping Routes to China

Wang Huachun 　Li Zhipeng 　Li Chen 　Qi Guanjun

Abstract: Global warming has led to changes in the natural environment and ecosystem. Countries around the world are full of expectations for the development of potential resources and pay increasing attention to the Arctic Circle. From the historical opportunity of opening new trade routes, expanding ports to develop the new economy and building a new pattern of international trade through the Arctic shipping routes, participating in the development of the Arctic shipping routes is in line with China’s development interests. However, the development of the Arctic shipping routes is a game of great powers. After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the US and European countries imposed increased sanctions against Russia, and the Arctic Council faced a crisis of suspension of events. The US and Russia have alternately conducted large-scale military exercises in the Arctic, leading to increased uncertainties for regional security. These unfavorable factors have made it difficult for China to participate in the development the Arctic shipping routes. Under the current new circumstances, China can engage in exchanges and cooperation with the Arctic countries in strengthening China’s voice in Arctic governance, bolstering policy leadership, enhancing international cooperation and exchanges, adhering to the principle of sustainable development, and conducting cooperation on navigation safety in the Arctic shipping routes, to actively promote the development of the Arctic shipping routes.

Keywords: Arctic shipping routes, Arctic Strategy, geopolitics, the Belt and Road Initiative

Is There “Productivity Paradox” in Sino-US Agricultural Product Trade:

Test from Perspective of Value-Added Trade

Ren Hui 　Lin Hai

Abstract: In the context of global value chains, the real gains from bilateral agricultural product trade between China and the US are deviated from the traditional trade statistics. This paper calculates the real trade gains between the two countries from the perspective of value-added trade and constructs a gravity model of value-added trade to explore the effect of productivity. The empirical results show that in the Sino-US bilateral agricultural product trade model, the increase in the total factor productivity significantly reduces the total export volume and the total value-added exports of the agricultural product industries in both countries. In the two countries’ respective foreign trade models, the total export volume is positively affected by domestic productivity. At the value-added level, there is an obvious “productivity paradox” in China and the US. The promotion effect of productivity in China and the US on the gains from the bilateral agricultural trade is reflected in the export-intensive industries, that is, it is necessary for the agricultural product industries to open up more export markets and participate in the global value chain, so as to increase trade gains through transformation and upgrading and improving productivity.

Keywords: trade gains, value-added, total factor productivity, gravity model, “productivity paradox”