2024年第3期（总429期）目录
“困境即使命”：构建中国—东盟—美国包容性地区秩序？
翟 崑
内容提要：突破近代以来西方主导的国际体系制约困境，实现共同的振兴与发展，是中国与东盟国家的共同使命。冷战结束以来，中国和东盟在突破困境的道路上实现长足发展，并致力于更高层级的中国—东盟命运共同体建设。当下，中国—东盟命运共同体发展面临新的系统性时代困境，包括全球性挑战突出、美国对华体系性战略竞争加剧、中国—东盟命运共同体仍需优化升级等诸多因素。在复杂竞合关系背景下，中国—东盟命运共同体突破这一困境的新使命，就是尝试构建中国—东盟—美国包容性地区秩序。
关键词：复杂竞合 东南亚 中国—东盟关系 中美关系 地区秩序 “全球南方”
基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目 “印太战略下‘东盟中心地位’重构与中国—东盟共建‘海上丝绸之路’研究”（编号：20&ZD145）
作者简介：翟崑系北京大学国际关系学院教授、博士生导师，北京大学区域与国别研究院副院长，研究方向为东南亚、“一带一路”、世界政治等。
粮食安全视域下中国自东盟农产品进口贸易潜力研究
——基于随机前沿引力模型的测度
崔 昊 吴 婷 霍 强
内容提要：粮食和能源安全是全球发展领域最紧迫的挑战，东盟是中国重要的农产品进口来源地。研究采用随机前沿引力模型，研究中国自东盟农产品进口贸易效率的影响因素，测度进口贸易潜力，并重点关注中国粮食安全指标对农产品进口效率的影响。研究发现，粮食安全指标对农产品进口效率没有显著促进作用，但对植物产品进口效率具有显著促进作用；粮食安全和“一带一路”倡议的叠加对农产品和植物产品进口效率均有显著促进作用。在此基础上，分析其政策含义并通过贸易潜力测算，可将东盟国家划分为观察区、重点区和核心区，有针对性加强与重点区国家的贸易合作。
关键词：粮食安全 中国—东盟关系 农产品 贸易潜力 随机前沿引力模型
基金项目：国家社会科学基金西部项目“中国与东南亚国家协同推进现代化的路径及策略研究”（编号：23XGJ011）
作者简介：崔昊系保山学院经济管理学院副教授，研究方向为中国东盟贸易投资关系；吴婷系保山学院大数据学院讲师，研究方向为统计学；霍强系云南行政学院教授，研究方向为中国东盟关系。
数字欧元的最新进展和战略考量
张 蓓 孙雯倩
内容提要：近年来，多国央行推出央行数字货币。与私人加密货币不同，央行数字货币是由货币当局发行的数字化的法定货币。在公众偏好转向无现金支付，支付市场供应商结构发生变化，以及对国外支付工具和技术的依赖风险加大的背景下，欧洲央行将发展数字欧元提上日程。在经历了评估、调查两个阶段后，2023年10月数字欧元进入准备阶段，在立法和规则设定方面为数字欧元的发行铺平道路。欧洲央行发行数字欧元的战略考量包括确保公民能够继续信任数字支付背后的货币锚，强化欧洲央行实施货币政策和维护金融稳定的能力，进一步促进欧洲一体化，以及通过提高欧元区对非欧洲支付解决方案的独立性来加强欧元区的战略自主权。随着越来越多经济体央行对央行数字货币的态度从审慎保守转向积极进取，数字欧元将对国际货币体系产生深远影响。
关键词：央行数字货币 数字欧元 国际货币体系 欧洲一体化
基金项目：国家自然科学基金专项项目“支持零碳金融发展的结构性宏观货币政策研究”（编号：72241408）
作者简介：张蓓系中国人民银行研究局副局长，研究方向为国际金融、货币政策、绿色金融；孙雯倩系中国人民银行金融研究所干部，研究方向为国际金融。
日本数字货币发展策略及启示
宋 爽 熊爱宗 华佳丽
内容提要：日本是全球数字货币交易和使用最活跃的国家之一，在私人数字货币、央行数字货币和数字货币国际合作三方面制定了系统的发展策略。从政策目标看，日本的国内数字货币政策强调发展，国际数字货币政策意在安全，而国际上追求安全也是为国内发展提供保障。从政策内容看，为促进国家经济发展，日本在国内采取了重私人数字货币、慎央行数字货币的策略；为保障国家经济安全，日本在国际上积极推动发达国家之间的央行数字货币合作，以弥补国内央行数字货币发展的制约。在政策协调方面，日本在本国领先的私人数字货币领域采取国内国际互补性策略，在本国慎重的央行数字货币领域采取国内国际替代性策略。参考日本数字货币发展策略，中国在发展数字货币时可考虑充分调动国内私营部门的创新作用，促进国际央行数字货币治理的公平性和包容性，加强国内国际数字货币之间的政策协调。
关键词：加密资产 稳定币 央行数字货币 发展与安全 金融安全
基金项目：中国社会科学院重大创新项目“世界之变、时代之变、历史之变背景下的人类命运共同体建设研究”（编号：2023YZD029）
作者简介：宋爽系中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员，研究方向为国际货币体系、数字货币；熊爱宗系中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员，研究方向为全球金融治理；华佳丽系中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院硕士研究生，研究方向为亚太地区国际关系。
制造业利用外资：先行工业化国家和中国的比较与借鉴
路红艳 林 梦 涂 苏
内容提要：在工业化后期，先行工业化国家制造业利用外资呈现出由制造业占主导向服务业占主导转变，以及制造业与服务业利用外资同步增长的特征。当前，中国进入工业化后期阶段，对比在这一阶段中国与先行工业化国家制造业利用外资的差异发现，中国经济以内循环为主，服务业利用外资质量不高，产业升级相对缓慢，特定时期跨国企业布局调整是中国制造业利用外资规模和占比呈现波动式下降趋势的主要原因。中国应根据当前制造业利用外资面临的形势和变化，积极调整制造业利用外资的战略和思路，推动制造业利用外资稳存量、提质量。
关键词：先行工业化国家 工业化后期 制造业 服务业 利用外资
作者简介：路红艳系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院现代供应链研究所研究员；林梦系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院现代供应链研究所所长、研究员；涂苏系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院现代供应链研究所助理研究员。作者研究方向均为现代供应链、现代流通等。
广东自由贸易试验区联动关系研究
符正平 彭 曦
内容提要：自由贸易试验区要避免“画地为牢”，关键在于如何处理与各方面的联动关系。以广东自由贸易试验区为例，联动关系包括与大湾区内地城市和海南自由贸易港经济功能园区，与香港和澳门两个自由港，以及与RCEP成员国和“一带一路”共建国家之间的联动。在与周边城市及海南自由贸易港的联动发展中，应强调平台之间的联动，利用“飞地”模式推进跨区域产业联动；在与香港、澳门自由港的联动发展中，应注重规则衔接与机制对接，探索建设粤港澳单一自贸区；在与RCEP成员国及“一带一路”共建国家联动发展中，要对标CPTPP等高水平国际经贸规则，加强与相关国家自贸区、工业园区之间的联动，将自由贸易试验区建设成为跨境产业链供应链的核心节点。
关键词：自贸试验区 联动发展 粤港澳大湾区 “一带一路” RCEP
基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“粤港澳大湾区科技创新促进未来产业发展的机制、路径与政策研究”（编号：23BJL119）
作者简介：符正平系中山大学管理学院教授、中山大学自贸区综合研究院院长，研究方向为自由贸易港、国际投资与跨国公司等；彭曦系中山大学粤港澳发展研究院副研究员，研究方向为自贸区和自贸港、区域经济等。
美国关于《国际卫生条例》修订提案的规制俘获策略及其因应
周银玲
内容提要：美国有关国际卫生法的主张呈现出信息俘获、代表性俘获、资源俘获三方面特点，其在议题设置、规则内容和保障机制等方面的扩权倾向，对《国际卫生条例（2005）》的修订谈判产生深刻影响。美国的立场反映了国家中心主义的价值观，偏离了全球公域、全球公共产品相关国际造法所根植的全球主义价值观。中国有必要对美国变革国际卫生法的做法加以审视，在推进全球卫生治理法治化过程中提升国际法话语表达能力，充分兼顾本国利益和国际社会共同利益，审慎预防和应对他国提案中基于国家单方利益的规制俘获风险，加快提升中国的国际话语权和规则制定权，促进公平公正的国际卫生法秩序。
关键词：《国际卫生条例》 规制俘获 国际话语权 全球卫生治理 对外援助
基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“重大突发公共卫生事件的国际法问题研究”（编号：20&ZD201）
作者简介：周银玲系武汉大学国际法研究所/国际法治研究院副研究员，研究方向为国际卫生法、全球健康治理。
应对气候变化政策的国际投资仲裁：风险与防范
张倩雯 李佳妮
内容提要：气候变化是人类面临的共同挑战，各国为应对气候变化纷纷出台减缓和适应气候变化政策。国际投资协定中的公平公正待遇条款因其内涵的模糊性在适用时充满不确定性，东道国应对气候变化政策可能会因违反公平公正待遇条款而被诉至国际投资仲裁庭，其中合理期待被损害是最常见的指控。仲裁庭有利于投资者的合理期待认定路径之下，投资者与东道国公私关系出现冲突。为实现“双碳”目标，鉴于资本输入国与资本输出国双重大国身份，中国应通过弱化公平公正待遇中的合理期待要素，增加应对气候变化政策灵活性，强化国内法治对气候问题的关注度，努力实现投资保护与东道国气候规制权的利益平衡。
关键词：气候变化 国际投资仲裁 可再生能源 公平公正待遇 合理期待
基金项目：国家社会科学基金年度项目“国际投资法制中跨境数据流动的例外条款规制研究”（编号：22BFX209）、成都市哲学社会科学规划项目“天府中央法务区多元化争端解决示范区建设研究”（编号：2023CS090）
作者简介：张倩雯系西南交通大学公共管理学院法学系副教授，研究方向为国际投资法；李佳妮系西南交通大学公共管理学院法学系硕士研究生，研究方向为国际投资法。
Dilemma as Mission: Constructing Inclusive Regional Order Involving China, ASEAN, and US
Zhai Kun
Abstract: The common goal of China and ASEAN countries is to break free from the constraints imposed by the Western-dominated international system and work towards mutual revitalization and development. Since the end of the Cold War, China and ASEAN have made significant strides in overcoming obstacles, and they are dedicated to establishing a more advanced China-ASEAN community with a shared future. However, the current development of the China-ASEAN community with a shared future is encountering new systemic challenges, including prominent global issues, US’s intensified strategic competition with China, and the necessity of optimizing and enhancing the China-ASEAN community with a shared future. To overcome these challenges, the new mission of the China-ASEAN community with a shared future is to construct an inclusive regional order involving China, ASEAN, and the US.
Keywords: complex competition and cooperation, Southeast Asia, China-ASEAN relations, China-US relations, regional order, the Global South
Potential of China’s Import Trade of Agricultural Products From ASEAN With Focus on Food Security: Measurement Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model
Cui Hao Wu Ting Huo Qiang
Abstract: The most urgent challenges in the realm of global development lie in ensuring food and energy security. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is an important source of imported agricultural products for China. Targeted at China’s import trade of agricultural products from ASEAN, this paper adopts the stochastic frontier gravity model to investigate the factors influencing its efficiency and measure its potential. It also focuses on the impact of China’s food security indicators on the efficiency of the above-mentioned import. The study finds that a significant contribution to the import efficiency brought by food security indicators is only available to plant products but not to agricultural products. However, the interaction of food security and the Belt and Road Initiative has a positive impact on the import of both plant products and agricultural products. On this basis, this paper analyzes the policy implications and divides ASEAN countries into three areas after estimating trade potential: observation area, key area, and core area, and puts forward that China should enhance trade cooperation with countries in the key area.
Keywords: food security, China-ASEAN relations, agricultural products, trade potential, stochastic frontier gravity model
Recent Advances in and Strategic Considerations for Digital Euro
Zhang Bei Sun Wenqian
Abstract: In recent years, central banks have begun to launch central bank digital currency (CBDC), which, unlike private cryptocurrencies, are digital fiat currencies issued by monetary authorities. Against the backdrop of a shift in public preference for cashless payments, a change in the supplier structure of the payments market, and an increased risk of dependence on foreign payment instruments and technologies, the European Central Bank (ECB) put the development of a digital euro on its agenda. After its evaluation and investigation phases, in October 2023, the digital euro entered its preparatory phase, which paved the way for the issuance of the digital euro in terms of legislation and rule-setting. The ECB’s strategic considerations include the following aspects: first, ensuring citizens’ belief in the monetary anchor behind digital payments; second, strengthening the ability of the ECB to implement monetary policies and maintain financial stability; third, further promoting European integration; fourth, strengthening the strategic autonomy of the euro area by enhancing the area’s independence from non-European payment solutions. As more and more central banks shift their attitudes toward CBDC from conservative to proactive, the digital euro will also have a profound impact on the international monetary system.
Keywords: central bank digital currency, digital euro, international monetary system, European integration
Japan’s Strategy on Digital Currency and Its Implications
Song Shuang Xiong Aizong Hua Jiali
Abstract: Japan is globally recognized as one of the most active countries in terms of digital currency trading and usage. It has formulated comprehensive development strategies in three aspects: private digital currency, central bank digital currency (CBDC) and digital currency international cooperation. As for strategic objectives, Japan’s domestic digital currency strategy aims at development, while the international strategy emphasizes security. The pursuit of international security also functions as a protective measure for domestic development. As for the content of the strategy, Japan values private digital currency but is cautious about CBDC domestically to promote economic development, while it actively promotes CBDC cooperation among developed countries internationally to ensure national economic security and address the constraints on the development of domestic CBDC. As for strategic coordination, Japan adopts complementary domestic and international strategies in the private digital currency area, while it employs alternative ones in the CBDC area. Japan’s systematic development strategy on digital currency provides three implications to China: the innovation role of the Chinese private sector should not be ignored, the equality and inclusiveness of international CBDC governance should be promoted, and the coordination of domestic and international development strategies on digital currency should be strengthened.
Keywords: crypto assets, stablecoin, central bank digital currency, development and security, financial security
Foreign Capital Utilization in Manufacturing: Comparison Between Pre-industrialized Countries and China and Its Enlightenment
Lu Hongyan Lin Meng Tu Su
Abstract: In the late stage of industrialization, foreign capital utilization in manufacturing in pre-industrialized countries showed regularities such as the transformation from the dominance of manufacturing to the dominance of services and the simultaneous growth of foreign capital utilization in manufacturing and services. At present, China is stepping into the late stage of industrialization. Comparing the differences in foreign capital utilization in manufacturing between China and the pre-industrialized countries at this stage, we can find that China’s economy takes domestic circulation as the mainstay, leading to the low quality of foreign capital utilization in services and the relatively slow pace of industrial upgrading. Meanwhile, multinationals adjust global strategic layouts at this specific period. These are the key factors for a fluctuating decline in the scale and proportion of foreign capital utilization in China’s manufacturing. In the current situation, initiatives should be taken to adjust the strategy of foreign capital utilization in manufacturing, so as to stabilize the amount of foreign capital and improve the quality of its utilization.
Keywords: pre-industrialized countries, late stage of industrialization, manufacturing, services, foreign capital utilization
Research on Interconnected Relationships of China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone
Fu Zhengping Peng Xi
Abstract: This paper explores the imperative of avoiding regional constraints in the development of pilot free trade zones and emphasizes the significance of managing interconnected relationships across different dimensions. Using the China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone as a case study, the paper delineates the interconnected relationships at three levels: interconnectivity between the China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone and inland cities within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as well as economic parks within the Hainan Free Trade Port, interconnection with the two free ports of Hong Kong and Macao, and engagement with member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and countries and regions along the Belt and Road. The paper contends that the interconnected development with neighboring cities and the Hainan Free Trade Port necessitates platform integration and the use of an “enclave” model to facilitate cross-regional industrial collaboration; the interconnected development with the two free ports of Hong Kong and Macao should focus on the alignment with the regulatory frameworks and mechanisms of the two free ports, to establish a Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao free trade zone; and the interconnected development with RCEP members and countries and regions along the Belt and Road necessitates the alignment with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and other high-level international economic and trade regulations, to enhance collaboration with relevant nations’ free trade zones and industrial parks and transform pilot free trade zones into pivotal hubs within cross-border industrial and supply chains.
Keywords: pilot free trade zone, interconnected development, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the Belt and Road Initiative, RCEP
Regulatory Capture in Global Rule-Making and Its Response:
Role of US in Amendments to International Health Regulations (2005)
Zhou Yinling
Abstract: The US-proposed amendments to international health law are characterized by information capture, representation capture and resource capture. Its tendency to expand power in terms of agenda setting, rule content and safeguard mechanisms has had a profound impact on the practice of negotiating the revision of the International Health Regulations (2005). The US position reflects the values of statism and deviates from the values of globalism rooted in international laws concerning the global commons and global public goods. It is thus necessary for China to critically inspect the US proposals for amendments to international health law and strive to strengthen China’s voice in international law affairs while promoting the rule of law in global health governance, so as to better balance its own interests and the common interests of the international community and prudently prevent and respond to the risk of regulatory capture caused by unilateral national interests of other countries’ proposals. It is also crucial for China to strengthen its voice in international affairs and rule-making power, to promote a fair and just international health law order.
Keywords: International Health Regulations, regulatory capture, voice in international affairs, global health governance, foreign aid
International Investment Arbitration for Climate Change Policies:
Risks and Countermeasures
Zhang Qianwen Li Jiani
Abstract: Climate change has become a common challenge for all mankind. In order to cope with climate change, countries have introduced mitigation and adaptation policies. The fair and equitable treatment clause in international investment agreements is full of uncertainties because of its ambiguous connotation. Host countries may face international investment arbitration claims against their climate change policies for violating the fair and equitable treatment clause, and the most common accusation is the violation of the principle of legitimate expectations. In the “legitimate expectations” determination by the arbitral tribunal in favor of investors, the public-private relationship between the investor and the host country is in conflict. To achieve the “dual carbon” goal, China, in view of the dual status of capital importers and exporters, should strike a balance between investment protection and host countries’ climate regulatory rights by avoiding overemphasis on the legitimate expectations element in the fair and equitable treatment clause, enhancing flexibility in climate change policies, and strengthening domestic legal attention to climate issues.
Keywords: climate change, international investment arbitration, renewable energy sources, fair and equitable treatment, legitimate expectations