2024年第2期（总428期）目录

“一带一路”合作的“四轮驱动”推进机制

卢　锋　 潘松李江

内容提要：“一带一路”大规模基建提升互联互通水平成效彰显，探究揭示该领域合作规模多年快速扩大与近年调整的经济逻辑，对中国深化“一带一路”合作具有借鉴意义。依据对东道国政策诉求与现实制约的观察，中国在承包工程合作、设备材料配套、多样化股权融资和大规模债务融资等方面拥有的综合能力，构成“一带一路”基建成效彰显的“四轮驱动”推进机制。从实际情况看，工程承包能力和设备材料配套能力在国际市场上较容易获得替代供给，通过股权和债权提供融资能力则替代性较低和现实稀缺度较高，中国对相关必要条件的系统性匹配能力是快速推进“一带一路”合作的密码。随着近年来全球经济环境变化与主权债务风险释放，中国对外债务融资节奏有所放缓并伴随承包工程适度减速，对深化“一带一路”合作提出新问题。需针对现实形势演变进一步创新完善投融资方式，推动“一带一路”合作行稳致远。

关键词：“一带一路”　对外承包工程　债务融资　主权债务　系统性匹配

作者简介：卢锋系北京大学国家发展研究院教授，研究方向为开放宏观经济学；潘松李江系北京大学国家发展研究院博士后、助理研究员，研究方向为跨境资本流动管理、主权债务。

金砖扩员：事实、挑战与展望

徐秀军　 袁晓慧　 王有鑫　 王　诚　 王　磊　 徐飞彪　 岳云霞

内容提要：继2011年南非加入金砖国家后，金砖国家于2024年1月1日实现第二次扩员，扩员后金砖成员国结构更加多元，代表性与合法性大幅提升。基于各国的禀赋条件、产业基础和技术水平，金砖国家经贸合作取得巨大进展，扩员后将增加经济合作新内涵。下一步，可重点推动传统能源和可再生能源、传统产业以及高技术产业三方面合作，通过深化货币合作、加强信贷融资支持、联合设立产能孵化基金、完善支付清算体系等方式提供金融支持。扩员后的新成员对金砖合作机制提出新诉求，给中国与新成员的经济合作带来机遇和挑战。扩员后的“大金砖合作”面临机制性挑战，如何推进建章立制和提升决策效率等问题具有重要的现实意义。金砖扩员提升了新兴经济体的影响力和话语权，并通过力量整合、共同发声和引领发展，成为推动“全球南方”发展壮大的重要力量。金砖国家组织是全球治理的一支重要新兴力量，增强了拉美国家对金砖国家组织的期待，金砖国家组织在拉美国家的拓展有望成为未来金砖扩员的新方向。

关键词：金砖国家　金砖扩员　经贸产业合作　“全球南方”　“大金砖合作”　拉美合作

基金项目：中国社会科学院重大创新项目“推进国家安全体系和能力现代化研究”（编号：2023YZD025）、厦门市金砖创新基地建设领导小组办公室委托项目“中国与金砖新成员国产业合作研究”

作者简介：徐秀军系中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所/国家全球战略智库研究员；袁晓慧系商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院西亚与非洲研究所研究员；王有鑫系中国银行研究院高级研究员；王诚供职于商务部西亚非洲司；王磊系北京师范大学金砖国家合作研究中心主任、政府管理学院副教授；徐飞彪系中国现代国际关系研究院金砖国家暨G20研究中心主任、研究员；岳云霞系中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所研究员。

全球粮食危机与中国应对策略

徐佳利　 周太东

内容提要：粮食安全是实现全球安全与可持续发展的重要基础，当前多重风险挑战叠加共振，削弱了国际社会抵御和应对粮食危机的能力。从全球粮食安全治理体系来看，粮食危机的生成因素涉及器物、制度与政策三个向度。世界经济增长放缓、地缘冲突频发、气候变化加剧削弱了全球粮食系统的器物基础，机制碎片化趋势降低了国际制度的治理效能，贸易保护主义和新自由主义粮农政策扩张致使诸多国家忽视粮食安全困境下必要的国际合作与共同利益。面对当前全球粮食危机，中国作为全球粮食安全治理的重要参与者，宜在全球发展倡议框架下，深入推进各项粮食安全行动，动员各方加大资金、技术等器物资源投入；加速全球粮食安全治理体系转型，维护联合国粮农三机构的中心作用；倡导普惠包容的粮农政策，引领塑造互利共赢的全球粮食安全合作氛围。

关键词：全球粮食危机　粮食安全治理　全球发展倡议　国际制度　地缘风险

基金项目：科技部国家外国专家项目“减贫治理的中国经验与国际比较”（编号：G2022172009L）

作者简介：徐佳利系农业农村部对外经济合作中心助理研究员，研究方向为国际发展、全球粮食安全；周太东系中国国际发展知识中心副主任、副研究员，研究方向为全球发展、国际发展合作、南南合作。

全球农业治理规则与中国参与：现状、挑战与进路

赵文杰　 丁凡琳

内容提要：国际规则在全球治理中的重要性日益凸显，并逐步演化为各方话语表达与权力博弈的交汇点，全球农业治理及其国际规则亦如此。全球农业治理的主要规则存在一般性规则、专业规则和区域性规则三个互补层次。作为发展中农业大国，中国不仅以诸多实际行动遵守和落实已参与的全球农业治理规则，而且不断探索推动既有规则变革的有效路径。中国参与全球农业治理面临发达国家掌握更多主动权，国际规则博弈竞争加剧，综合国力仍然有限，以及既有变革的成效尚不明显等挑战。未来，中国需要进一步提升研究和运用国际规则的能力，积极提供更多制度型国际公共产品，充分发挥既有国际组织和双多边机制的作用，并探索更多新的全球农业治理路径。

关键词：全球治理　国际规则　农业治理　制度型开放　国际组织　国际发展

基金项目：中央级科学事业单位改善科研条件专项资金（编号：292023Z-1017-2023）、中国标准化研究院院长基金重点项目（编号：292022Y-9456）

作者简介：赵文杰系清华大学公共管理学院博士后、助理研究员，研究方向为全球农业治理、国际发展合作；丁凡琳系南开大学周恩来政府管理学院讲师，研究方向为数字经济与数字治理、国际发展合作。

全球跨境数据流动治理的演进与趋势

陈　颖　 薛　澜

内容提要：随着数字全球化转型的推进，如何治理跨境数据流动成为最具争议的全球治理议题之一。跨境数据流动的自然、经济和法律属性增大了全球治理的难度，全球跨境数据流动呈现治理机制网络化、治理目标多元化、治理选择兼容性低等特征，这对全球治理合作体系的有效性及传统治理政策的适用性形成了挑战，治理目标难以平衡、治理能力难以跟进、治理合作难以达成。未来全球跨境数据流动治理趋于区域层面的治理合作，推动区域规则的兼容性和国家政策的互操作性将成为必由之路。中国应统筹安全与发展的关系，政府与企业同向发力，规范和促进数据依法有序自由流动，提高参与全球跨境数据流动治理的能力。

关键词：全球治理　国际合作　数字贸易　数据治理　跨境数据流动

基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目“中国公共政策理论与治理机制研究”（编号：20171311934）、清华大学自主科研计划“算法全球治理与分类治理的理论探索”（编号：2021THZWJC12）

作者简介：陈颖系清华大学公共管理学院博士研究生，研究方向为数字治理、数字贸易、全球治理；薛澜系清华大学文科资深教授、苏世民书院院长、公共管理学院学术委员会主任，研究方向为公共政策与公共管理、全球治理、科技创新政策等。

亚洲跨境信贷网络特征及影响因素分析——兼论中日银行业的地位变化

邓　鑫　 冯育宁　 金昭煜

内容提要：本文以国际清算银行公布的2016—2021年14个亚洲经济体银行业的跨境信贷数据为样本，利用欧式距离对各经济体银行业之间的信贷联系进行测度，由此构建亚洲跨境信贷网络，分析网络结构的动态特征及驱动因素。结果表明，2016—2020年亚洲跨境信贷网络结构呈现出高密度、高聚类系数的特征，中国、中国香港、日本、新加坡等是网络核心，外围经济体具有向核心靠拢的趋势，受新冠疫情影响，2021年网络聚类系数小幅回落。中国银行业在网络中的重要性显著上升，尤其是资金贷出方的角色显著增强，与其联系最紧密的经济体为土耳其、澳大利亚和印度，而中国港澳台地区与内地（大陆）的关联强度不如预期。日本银行业一直是亚洲重要的资金贷出方，与中国港澳台地区、新加坡银行业紧密关联。此外，新加坡、澳大利亚、巴林银行业在网络中发挥了重要的桥梁作用。QAP回归分析显示，亚洲经济体间的金融发展水平差异和政府治理水平差异越小，越容易形成跨境信贷联系。本文为中国银行业跨境信贷业务的发展以及亚洲区域金融一体化的推进提供了政策启示。

关键词：跨境银行　跨境信贷网络　金融风险　网络分析法　跨境债权债务

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“金融业全面开放背景下中日韩金融合作深化的动因、效应与路径研究”（编号：19BGJ054）、湖南省研究生科研创新一般项目“金融开放对金融稳定的影响机制的理论与实证研究”（编号：CX20231139）

作者简介：邓鑫系湖南工商大学财政金融学院教授，研究方向为国际金融理论与政策、亚洲金融合作；冯育宁系湖南工商大学财政金融学院硕士研究生，研究方向为区域经济合作；金昭煜系湖南工商大学财政金融学院硕士研究生，研究方向为区域经济合作。

专业性组织如何放大国家权力：美国利用SWIFT实施的金融制裁

翟大宇　 许　悦　 赵丹阳

内容提要：西方国家通过SWIFT对俄罗斯实施金融制裁引起各方关注。各国在跨境支付中对SWIFT的高度依赖和美国在SWIFT中的结构性权力优势，是美国得以利用SWIFT对他国实施制裁的重要条件。跨境支付通信高度依赖SWIFT的庞大金融通信基础设施网络，使其具备了成为有效制裁工具的潜力。美国凭借美元的国际货币地位及在SWIFT治理结构中的权力优势，对SWIFT形成多方面的控制。在“美国（+盟国）—SWIFT—其他国家（被制裁国）”的权力关系中，SWIFT能够放大和延伸美国权力，通过SWIFT监控他国的跨境支付信息，并威胁切断他国几乎全部跨境支付。现实中，美国对伊朗、朝鲜和俄罗斯不同程度地使用了SWIFT制裁。为应对这一金融制裁，可以从降低对SWIFT的依赖和改善其治理结构两方面采取措施。

关键词：SWIFT　跨境支付　金融制裁　结构性权力　国际货币体系

基金项目：中国矿业大学（北京）中央高校基本科研业务费项目“大宗商品定价与人民币国际化”（编号：2018QG02）、对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目“国家学习视角下的中国环境与外交政策演进”（编号：21QD37）

作者简介：翟大宇系对外经济贸易大学国际发展合作学院讲师，研究方向为国际政治经济、全球治理；许悦系中国矿业大学（北京）管理学院讲师，研究方向为国际金融、风险管理；赵丹阳系清华大学国际关系学系博士研究生，研究方向为国际关系、中美关系。

“Four-Wheel Drive” Mechanism for Promoting Belt and Road Cooperation

Lu Feng　Pan Songlijiang

Abstract: The large-scale infrastructure construction along the Belt and Road has achieved remarkable results in improving connectivity. Exploring and revealing the economic logic of the rapid expansion of cooperation in this field for many years and relevant adjustment in recent years has significance for China to deepen the Belt and Road cooperation. According to the observation on policy demands and practical constraints of host countries, China’s comprehensive capabilities in engineering contracting, equipment and materials supporting, diversified equity financing and large-scale debt financing constitute a “four-wheel drive” mechanism to promote the development of infrastructure along the Belt and Road. The actual situation shows that engineering contracting capacity and equipment and materials supporting capacity are easier to alternative supply in the international market, while the capability to provide financing through equity and creditor’s rights is less alternative and scarcer in reality. China’s capability to systematically match relevant necessary conditions is key to rapidly promoting the Belt and Road cooperation. Due to the changes in the global economic environment and the rise of sovereign debt risks in recent years, China’s external debt financing has slowed down, with the moderate slowdown of contracting projects, and new issues regarding deepening the Belt and Road cooperation have appeared. It is necessary to further innovate and improve the investment and financing models given changes in the real situation, and promote the stable and long-term development of the Belt and Road cooperation.

Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative, foreign contracted projects, debt financing, sovereign debt, systematic match

Expansion of BRICS: Facts, Challenges and Prospects

Xu Xiujun　Yuan Xiaohui　Wang Youxin　Wang Cheng　Wang Lei　Xu Feibiao　Yue Yunxia

Abstract: Following South Africa’s accession to BRIC in 2011, BRICS embraced its second expansion on January 1, 2024, thereby diversifying the composition of member countries and significantly enhancing its representativeness and legitimacy. Driven by their respective endowments, industrial foundations and technological levels, the economic and trade cooperation among the BRICS nations has made significant strides, and the expansion will bring about new dimensions to their economic cooperation. The next step should focus on promoting cooperation in three key areas: traditional energy and renewable energy, traditional industries, and high-tech industries. This can be achieved by providing financial support through deepening currency cooperation, strengthening credit and financing support, jointly establishing capacity incubation funds, and improving payment and clearing systems.  New members have put forward new demands for the BRICS cooperation mechanism, presenting both opportunities and challenges for economic cooperation between China and these new entrants. The greater BRICS cooperation after the expansion encounters institutional challenges, and issues such as facilitating the establishment of rules and enhancing decision-making efficiency are of significant practical significance. The expansion of BRICS strengthens the influence and voice of emerging market economies, serving as a significant driving force in advancing the development of the Global South through power integration, speaking with one voice and leading development. BRICS is a significant emerging force in global governance, bolstering the expectations of Latin American countries toward its role. The admission of Latin American countries to BRICS will be a new direction for the expansion of BRICS.

Keywords: BRICS, BRICS expansion, economic and industrial cooperation, Global South, greater BRICS cooperation, cooperation with Latin America

Global Food Crisis and China’s Countermeasures

Xu Jiali　Zhou Taidong

Abstract: Food security is an important foundation for achieving global security and sustainable development. Currently, multiple risks are overlapping, weakening the international community’s ability to withstand and respond to the food crisis. From the perspective of global food security governance, the driving forces behind the global food crisis involve three dimensions: materials, institutions and policies. Slowdowns in global economic growth, frequent geopolitical conflicts and exacerbated climate change have weakened the material foundation of the global food system. Fragmentation of mechanisms has reduced the governance effectiveness of international institutions. Trade protectionism and the expansion of neoliberal agricultural and food policies have led many countries to neglect the necessary international cooperation and common interests in the face of the food crisis. Faced with the current global food crisis, China, as an important participant in global food security governance, needs to accelerate various actions related to food security under the Global Development Initiative. It should mobilize all parties to increase financial, technological and other material investments, expedite the transformation of the global food security governance system, enhance the central roles of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the International Fund for Agricultural Development and the World Food Programme, advocate for inclusive agricultural and food policies, as well as shape a mutually beneficial atmosphere for international cooperation on food security.

Keywords: global food crisis, food security governance, Global Development Initiative, international institution, geopolitical risk

Global Agricultural Governance Rules and China’s Participation:

Status Quo, Challenges and Approaches

Zhao Wenjie　Ding Fanlin

Abstract: At present, the importance of international rules in global governance has become increasingly prominent and has evolved into an intersection of discourse expression and power game of various participants. This also holds true for global agricultural governance and its international rules. The main rules of global agricultural governance can be summarized into three complementary ones, namely general rules, professional rules, and regional rules. As a major developing agricultural country, China has taken many concrete actions to observe and implement the global agricultural governance rules it has participated in and has been exploring effective ways to reform the existing rules. However, China still faces many challenges, such as more initiative in the hands of developed countries, intensified game and competition of international rules, limited overall national strength, and non-obvious success in the existing reform. In the future, it is necessary for China to further enhance the research and application capacity of international rules, actively provide more institutional international public goods, give full play to the role of international organizations and multilateral mechanisms, and explore more new ways of global agricultural governance.

Keywords: global governance, international rules, agricultural governance, institutional opening-up, international organizations, international development

Evolution and Trend of Global Governance on Cross-Border Data Flows

Chen Ying　Xue Lan

Abstract: With the advancement of digital globalization transformation, how to govern cross-border data flows has become one of the most controversial global governance issues. The natural, economic and legal attributes of cross-border data flows have increased the difficulty in global governance. Global cross-border data flows exhibit characteristics such as networked governance mechanisms, diverse governance objectives and low compatibility of governance choices, which pose challenges to the effectiveness of the global governance cooperation system and the applicability of traditional governance policies, thus making it difficult to balance governance goals, keep pace with governance capabilities and achieve governance cooperation. In the future, regional-level cooperation will increasingly shape global governance on cross-border data flows, with a focus on promoting compatibility among regional rules and interoperability of national policies. China should effectively coordinate the balance between security and development, foster closer collaboration between the government and enterprises, establish regulatory frameworks to ensure orderly data flows, and enhance its capacity to actively participate in global governance on cross-border data flows.

Keywords: global governance, international cooperation, digital trade, digital governance, cross-border data flows

Characteristics of Asian Cross-Border Credit Network and Its Influencing Factors:

Changing Positions of Chinese and Japanese Banking

Deng Xin　Feng Yuning　Jin Zhaoyu

Abstract: Based on cross-border credit data of the banking sectors of 14 Asian economies from 2016 to 2021 released by the Bank for International Settlements, the credit linkages between the banking sectors are measured by constructing Euclidean distances, and the Asian regional cross-border credit network is constructed to analyze the dynamic characteristics and driving factors of the network structure. The results show that from 2016 to 2020, the cross-border credit network structure in Asia presented the characteristics of high density and high clustering coefficient. China, Hong Kong of China, Japan and Singapore were the core of the network, while peripheral economies tended to converge to the core. But because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the network clustering coefficient slightly declined in 2021. Chinese banking industry played an increasingly important role as a lender of funds in the network, and showed the closest links with the banking of Türkiye, Australia and India, but fewer links with that of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan of China than expected. Japanese banking has been a vital lender in Asia, with close links to the banking of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan of China and Singapore. In addition, the banking of Singapore, Australia and Bahrain played a significant bridging role in the network. The QAP regression analysis shows that smaller differences in financial development and governance levels are more likely to contribute to the formation of cross-border credit linkages among Asian economies. This paper provides policy enlightenment for developing the cross-border credit business of Chinese banking and promoting regional financial integration in Asia.

Keywords: cross-border banks, cross-border credit network, financial risk, network analysis method, cross-border claims and debts

How Do Professional Organizations Amplify State Power:

Financial Sanctions Imposed by US Through SWIFT System

Zhai Dayu　Xu Yue　Zhao Danyang

Abstract: The implementation of financial sanctions against Russia by Western countries through the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system has attracted attention from all parties. The high dependence of countries on the SWIFT system in cross-border payments and the structural power advantage of the US in the SWIFT system are important conditions for the US to use the SWIFT system to impose sanctions on other countries. Cross-border payment communications highly relies on SWIFT’s vast financial communications infrastructure network, which enables it to become an effective sanction tool. The US has gained control over SWIFT through the international currency status of the US dollar and power advantage in SWIFT’s governance structure. In the power relationship of the US (+allies) −SWIFT − other countries (sanctioned countries), SWIFT can amplify and extend the power of the US. The US can monitor cross-border payment information of other countries through SWIFT and threaten to cut off almost all cross-border payments of other countries. The US has imposed sanctions against Iran, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and Russia through SWIFT to varying degrees. To address such sanctions, measures can be taken from two aspects: reducing the dependence on the SWIFT system and improving its governance structure.

Keywords: SWIFT, cross-border payment, financial sanction, structural power, international monetary system